1 in 800 chance of the Earth being in the habitable zone, huh? Bullshit. Not only are estimates of the habitable zone's actual size highly debated, but how in the fuck could they even possibly be taking into account all the varying factors for how near or far from the sun the planet is orbiting? What about the odds of the Earth never forming a habitable planet? What about the odds of the Earth not forming an atmosphere to allow for non-microbial life? Just nonsense here, there are dozens of factors I can think of aside from the habitable zone thing that could have caused Earth not to work for life.
1 in ~10,000 chance of single celled organisms spawning from non-living things? Pffffffft. I've found other things from actual scientists types that give numbers as high as 1 in 1057,800
in answer, but the reality is that it's literally impossible to calculate. They do stupid shit like count the number of atoms on Earth and estimate how many of each necessary atoms there were present at the time and then odds of them happening to come together in the right way just by randomly assigning chances to it. It's not scientific at all, it's guesswork at best.
1 in 10,000 chance of evolution leading to humans? How's that? Were there only those few steps they showed, and each species spawned 10 new ones and each of those spawned 10 more and so on, as would be the only logical thing given that the number raised by an order of magnitude each time? Just complete rubbish. There's no fucking way to calculate all the possible genetic variations, plus the environmental changes that governed what traits made for greater survivability, but even if you could it'd probably be a far higher number than fucking 1 in 10k.
1 in 20,000 chance of parents meeting? Yeah, I found where they likely pulled this stat from
. It's shenanigans, assumes they could possibly meet 1/10th of the worlds population and that they met a new person of the opposite sex every day from ages 15 to 40. Both of these figures are just complete guesses, leading to the end figure being just a guess. Also at the top of that article it cites a supposedly scientific calculation of any given person existing to be 1 in 400 trillion, much smaller than the video ends up with.
1 in 2,000 chance of offspring. Welp, I totally found their source, they're using the same exact numbers from this article. How'd they get the chances of offspring?
Now let’s say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. So the probability of your parents’ chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000.
So much guessing bullshit in there. Do you talk to 10% of all people you encounter? Do you have a purposeful second meeting with 1 in every 100 people you happen to encounter? 1 in 1000 people you meet turns into a long-term relationship? 1 in fucking 2 long term relationships having kids? LOL, this is so ridiculous.
1 in 4x1017
chance of the right sperm and egg hooking up? Another number from the same article, which takes the total number of eggs an average woman has times the 1/3 the number of sperm cells an average man makes over his life. Why 1/3 of his sperm? Because the ones from after the woman goes into menopause don't count. No, really, go read the article yourself, it says that. Nothing taken into account for all the eggs and sperm wasted before they met and, just that one arbitrary thing. Another nonsense number.
1 in huge number odds of this going down for all your ancestors? Oh hey, they're using a different number here. Yeah, no idea what they're doing here, but they said 50,000 generations and that's just silly. Let's say 2 million years ago (lowball estimate) were the first generations of things in the Homo
genus that we're the last living species of. A generation is the average time between birth of a parent to birth of a child, and there's no sure knowledge here. Let's call it 25 years, just to be generous to their low number of generations (even though the average is more like 20 or less in reality), divide the total years by years in a generation and bam, you get 80,000. Other estimates place it more in the 125,000 generations area. Add in the calculations for each pair of your ancestors happening to meet and happening to breed and you still probably won't get as high a number as they're saying. It's silly shit.
And then their end number? Welp, it's fucking useless because all the pieces of data used to make it are useless. My scientifically-minded self can't stand this kind of crap. It's just like the Drake equation
that I've heard people going nuts over, a bunch of guesses and estimates to come up with a completely worthless end figure. I guess they're neat things to think about, but trying to apply real numbers to it makes me facepalm so damned hard.