I’m mildly confused. If S. Carcino won’t be openly defying the alliance what exactly will be happening? 

Yes I do like the idea of Lance coming upon the already escalated war.

Sounds about right so for a starting post something like—

[i]Lance, Welan, Kendal,[/i] and [i]Farsine[/i] are travelling to Grado. On the way there they encounter bandits and rescue the cleric [i]Mona. [/i]

During a meeting of strategy in which [i]King Eldys[/i] and his generals (including your unfinished one) are at an assassin of unknown origins succeeds in killing one of his loyal vassals. 

And… [i]Laures[/i] is playing peacemaker between N. Carcino and S. Carcino?