[quote=@Smash]
<Snipped quote by j8cob>

538 is my source.
[/quote]

I'd have to see specific surveys to be able to gauge how bullshit they are, but I can tell you that 538 and Nate Silver have had a track record of their predictions being wrong. I'm fairly certain at this point that his prediction model is just flawed. Like it's not even partisan at this point, it's just not good at predicting things.