- The details of the Tehran Conference between the UK, USA and USSR are leaked, including the verbal agreement about the disposition of Poland. When this comes out, it is a shock to the Western Allies. Roosevelt is pressured by election year politics to take a stronger stance in support of the Polish Government in Exile and other governments in exile add their pressure on Members of Parliament in the UK.

- The Warsaw Uprising happens about April 1944, the Polish Independent Parachute brigade is dropped in. The Special Operations Executive (SOE) and Office of Strategic Services (OSS) provides assistance as well.
- Churchill and Roosevelt, pushed by internal political considerations, such as the outrage of Polish-Americans on the homefront, when details of the Tehran Conference are leaked, require Soviet permission to land aircraft in their airspace as part of the supply effort to Armia Krajowa forces. They push the Second Front issue and force the USSR to accept that RAF and USAAF aircraft will land to refuel in USSR-controlled space, similar to the protocol for missions over other parts of Europe.
- As a result, the Armia Krajowa, reinforced by the Independent Polish Parachute brigade and anti-tank equipment and other needed supplies, is able to turn Warsaw into a fortress against German forces, similar to Leningrad, diverting troops that might well have defended other advances.

- Eisenhower decides to support the Warsaw siege with an airborne drop of Allied paratroopers, instead of targeting Holland. Operational control is under XVIII Airborne Corps under the command of Lt. General Matthew Bunker Ridgway, who adds his acumen to the ongoing battle, and much needed command and control. Allied Airborne forces are able to extend the siege even longer, even as the Germans focus their defense against the Soviet push further south, leaving Northern German defenses somewhat strained.
- George S. Patton, provided with the supplies needed to continue his push, is able to recapture a significant area of Germany in the intervening months while the Russians swing through Lwow, Lubin and Krakow, bypassing Warsaw and Northern Poland entirely, installing the People's Republic of Poland in power in those Soviet-Occupied regions. Western Allies are able to take Gdansk in early 1945 and reinforce Poland by land and by sea.

- As a result, Berlin is taken by Western Allies, as the Soviet Advance is considerably delayed due to animosity between the Republic of Poland and the USSR, as well as the politics of the Allies. The Soviet sphere of influence rests in the Southern part of East Germany, whereas the Western Allies are able to create a land bridge to the Free Polish forces.

- Compelled by the degree of threats and demands the USSR makes on the Western Allies regarding Poland, the North Atlantic Treaty and NATO are established to provide a common defense of western allies against Soviet aggression.

- Poland and Germany are both occupied by the Allies, with the Third Republic of Poland and the People's Republic of Poland negotiating reunification in secret.
- The USSR becomes aware of these negotiations and attempts to occupy Southern Poland, causing the collapse of their puppet government and claims by the Third Republic on all People's Republic of Poland territory.
- The USSR does not recognize these claims, setting in motion a conflict among allies as it attacks Polish forces in Poland and pushes for the parts of Poland it did not previously occupy.
- Article 5 of NATO is invoked.