[quote=mdk]
What we've seen from the aggressive draw-down of American forces is that countries become more willing to go to war with one another (and/or civil war). Not of the drawdown -- that's a silly thought -- but more 'in light of' the opportunity, they're ready to roll the dies. Notable examples are Arab Spring culminating in Syria; Russia in Georgia and Crimea; Iran's nuclear saga; etc.
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And these are existing issues that have been part of these countries history for years. Secondly, this Arab Spring...is it really tied in any way to the drawdown of American forces, or is it something that has been coming for years and just happened to coincide with the same time frame? Would it happen regardless of the state of the US military? I believe it would. Course, at this point, that's only pure speculation with little understanding of how the situation in all of the involved countries has been developing since the 70s, or earlier.