GoT -- the moment that spawned the war of the five kings

[mdk]

maybe spoilers

So what I just realized was that Joffrey, being the ignorant cunt that he is, would've left Winterfell without a second thought if Tyrion hadn't provoked his anger. Sending an assassin after Bran had nothing to do with covering his parents' tracks -- he was just trying to show Tyrion who's the boss, because of this moment right here. If Tyrion doesn't slap the shit out of Joffrey by the stables, then Cat never investigates what happened, Ned never gets suspicious, the starks and lannisters never fight..... maybe Robert still dies, and maybe Ned still investigates the bastards on account of Lysa's note, but I don't think he goes to war over Jon Arryn alone.

[Doivid]

A theory that doesn't pin it all on Cat and/or Sansa? how can this be

[The Nexerus]

Doivid said
A theory that doesn't pin it all on Cat and/or Sansa? how can this be

It really is all Catelyn's fault, though. Mind you, it wasn't the stupidest thing she did, but that's only because she did a lot of stupid things.

[Jorick]

Nah, there are other things you could more accurately pin it on. That moment only really led to Stark involvement, but there would've likely been a succession war soon enough even without what came from that slap.

Spoilers from the books

There are two other things you could blame for the war that would have made a much larger difference had they not happened this way.

If Jon Arryn had not been poisoned, Ned wouldn't have been brought south thus Robert very likely would have lived a lot longer. No dead king, no honorable Hand to stir shit up, not succession war. Following this theory, you could sorta blame the war on Lysa Arryn and Littlefinger, since they were the ones behind the poisoning.

You could also go back farther and point the finger at Cersei and Jaime. If there was no incest going on and no question of the father of the heir (by way of it really being Robert's and having the dark hair and such), there would have been no grounds whatsoever for a succession war and the idea probably never would have gotten into Stannis or Renly's head, and even if things still happened the same otherwise Ned would have fully supported Robert's son taking the throne so there wouldn't have been any drama in the North.

[natsumehack]

Clearly the reason reason is because of the movie weird 30 minute youtube video theevan.



Look at it, all 5 sides of the war saw it, and was like "wtf is this?" all had some whackjob theory, and like every and all internet arguments, breaks out into complete hell, because no one is willing to think there theory is wrong, so they fight. - NatsumeHack's Whackjob theory about the moment that spawned the war of the five kings, with out ever watching or reading GoT.

[mbl]

spoilers

The only moment that could truely be considered the cause of the war of five kings is the true king's death, but really the entire cause of the war was Ned's actions leading up to his death. Had Ned not decided to tell every untrustworthy person that he'd discovered the incest and failed to tell Robert the war of five kings would have not happened or at the very least would have gone differently. Had he not told Cersei she wouldn't have caused Robert's accident, had he made it a thing before Robert died then Cersei and the kids would have been fucked and at the worst it would have ended up a war of two kings with the Starks with Stannis and the Lannisters with Renly. Had he not told Roberts brothers they wouldn't have had the basis of their claims. Had Ned not been killed Rob wouldn't have tried the king in the north nonsense. There's also the possibility that if Ned hadn't told Cersei, Littlefinger would have killed him before he could stir shit up, that seems to me like Littlefinger's best option before Cersei started her scheming.

To MDK's theory: Preventing the assassin and Cat kidnapping Tyrion wouldn't have prevented the war, it might have prevented the war in the north from starting so soon, leaving Tyrion and Jaime to make the decisions in king's landing during Ned's investigation and Tywin showing up immidiately after Jof became king, leading to things being much better for the Lannisters. That whole plot line was mostly unconnected to the plot line that caused the war.

To Jorick: Changing either of the things you listed wouldn't just prevent the war of five kings plotline, they would prevent the entire series, it is best not to think in those terms.

[natsumehack]

mbl said

Nothing about my whackjob theory how evil!

[Lucian]

What about Mellisandre, Jorick? She may still have pushed Stannis toward the Iron Throne because of her belief that he is Azor Ahai reincarnated. If she managed to get her claws in deep enough, he may even have rebelled against Robert.

[Dervish]

Lucian said
What about Mellisandre, Jorick? She may still have pushed Stannis toward the Iron Throne because of her belief that he is Azor Ahai reincarnated. If she managed to get her claws in deep enough, he may even have rebelled against Robert.

I find this to be a bit doubtful, given how lawful Stannis is. Also, keep in mind his banner men used to be Robert's for the most part. He wouldn't have had enough bannermen to challenge Robert, and the rest of Westeros that was a part of Robert's Rebellion would have supported the king, not his usurper brother. You can see how well thst worked for the Greyjoys, and they had the largest fleet in Westeros.

[mdk]

and that's assuming she *actually* believes he's Azor Azhai, too. Which...... I mean I'm all about my Stannis, you know that, but the red woman is crafty.

[The Nexerus]

Spoiler possibly?

Aegon VI is the one true King.

[mdk]

The Nexerus said

*cough* John Snow will ride a dragon. Believe it.

[Lucian]

Dervish said
I find this to be a bit doubtful, given how lawful Stannis is. Also, keep in mind his banner men used to be Robert's for the most part. He wouldn't have had enough bannermen to challenge Robert, and the rest of Westeros that was a part of Robert's Rebellion would have supported the king, not his usurper brother. You can see how well thst worked for the Greyjoys, and they had the largest fleet in Westeros.

Granted.

mdk said
and that's assuming she *actually* believes he's Azor Azhai, too. Which...... I mean I'm all about my Stannis, you know that, but the red woman is crafty.

Another good point. I concede.

[The Nexerus]

mdk said
*cough* John Snow will ride a dragon. Believe it.

If he survives, then my bet is on the three heads being Snow, Daenarys and Aegon.

[mbl]

Lucian said
What about Mellisandre, Jorick? She may still have pushed Stannis toward the Iron Throne because of her belief that he is Azor Ahai reincarnated. If she managed to get her claws in deep enough, he may even have rebelled against Robert.

I find assassination more likely than rebellion

In the canon Jorick presented of Jon Arryn not being killed, then Robert would have killed a lot of major characters in the series and eliminated the chance of most people contending for the thrown. Cersei and the kids would die for sure, leaving Stannis well known as Roberts heir. All Stannis would need is for the Red Lady to do her shenanigans to kill Robert, in which case the only one who might try and challenge him for the throne is Renly, which seems unlikely that the Tyrells would push him into a war like that with Stannis likely having the North backing him.

[Doivid]

mbl said

Yeah really. If at any point (even after Robert's death) Ned had wised up to the world that really existed, he could have made some smart decisions.

but then if you wanna go further back you could blame the circumstances that put him at the head of house stark, because he wasn't trained to be a lord and play the game, just to be an honorable second son knight.