Donbass, Ukraine – a non-recognized country at war

A short 2016 look at Ukraine. Attempted to be neutral. I personally dislike Ukraine strongly. Let's hope I succeeded.


Executive Summary

The Donbass region is currently still volatile with frequent engagements between the two sides being common place – especially by artillery bombardments and close range mortars, as well as armour being used. The ceasefire is still in place, but both sides indicate that the other side is breaking the ceasefire. Likely this is because of disorganization and lack of discipline among the DPR militia, as well as a result of the Ukrainian agenda.
 
SITREP Donbass

The Donbass region is currently held by the ‘Donetsk Peoples’ Republic’ or otherwise known as the DPR. The DPR is a self-proclaimed state who claims the Donbass region as their territory, and they control this territory. However, despite being a self-proclaimed state, only 1 state has acknowledged them as such. (Informatsionnoje telegrafnoje agentstvo Rossii, 2014)

This is not special information on its own, however the interest in the recognition lies in the fact that the DPR also is not recognized by the Russian federation, despite the fact that the DPR is supported by Russia with arms and even volunteer soldiers. (KyivPost, 2014)
The fighting in the Donbass region is still ongoing with reports of combat coming in primarily from the DPR. As of the time of writing, attacks occurred as recently as the same day that the report was made. Frequent artillery shelling is common place, as well as small engagements between DPR/mercenary forces and Ukrainian soldiers. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)

Despite the volatile situation in the region, a security report is released regularly by the local news agency. Vice-commander of the DPR People’s Militia Eduard Basurin writes that ‘’the situation remains tense.’’ (Donbass International News Agency, 2016) It should be noted that this commander is a part of the DPR and therefore is presumably not entirely reliable when it comes to discovering the facts of these engagements.

Furthermore the commander also highlights that civilian targets are being targeted by the Ukrainian armoured brigades as well as the ‘’46th special regiment’’ whom engaged in mortar fire against these industrial and civilian targets. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)

From these reports it becomes incredibly clear that the DPR is engaging in propaganda tactics, possibly to bolster the morale of DPR militia forces, or to damage the morale of Ukrainian troops. A third possibility is that they wish to alert the international community to the transgressions being made in the Donbass area, but this seems unlikely due to the small scope and reach of the source agency.

Other sources indicate that the claim that Ukraine is engaging with the DPR are true – in fact Ukrainian sources also indicate that they are preparing to engage with the DPR. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) Although they do not directly indicate that the ceasefire is being broken, it seems likely that this is also true since the Ukrainian sources also indicate that the DPR militias have been firing upon Ukrainian soldier, claiming the life of a single Ukrainian soldier. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016)

Overall, it could be said that despite the ceasefire, the situation is incredibly tense and diplomatic operations or NGO activity is ill-advised.
 
Analysis


As of now, the situation in the Donbass remains uncertain except for the fact that there is combat occurring in these regions. From the reports from both sides it seems clear that neither of the two sides is willing to work towards peace in a diplomatic manner despite the fact that the two reached an agreement for a ceasefire earlier. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016; Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) As a result this is specifically of interest for the United Nations. Ukraine especially is in the limelight of the European Union and that means that by extent it would be in the interest of the UN.

Due to the presence of a ceasefire agreement, the UN might be inclined to send observers, launch investigations to war-crime claims from both sides, as well as possibly send a peacekeeping force to maintain the ceasefire until a diplomatic agreement could be reached.
Another factor is the involvement of Russian forces within Ukraine. Although their involvement has been long suspected, it is strange when you consider that Russia has not formally recognized the DPR. However, through aiding the DPR in their fight against Ukraine, it could be said that they have informally recognized this country. However on the other hand, the person that organizes these volunteers also said that the state does not officially sponsor these actions and as a result, there is a plausible deniability for Russia if they were to be confronted about the mercenaries. (KyivPost, 2014) Never the less a case could be made to press the Russian Federation to stop these mercenary activities.

In Kazakhstan the situation was similar, with volunteer troops moving across the borders to fight in another war in return for payment, where these mercenaries are now being prosecuted. The same could happen in Russia.

Thusly, when looking at the short-term goals for both the DPR as well as Ukraine, it seems incredibly clear so far what their goals are. The DPR seems unwilling to cooperate with Ukraine under the pretence that Russia will support them. While keeping up appearances by releasing biased military reports, they are continuing to fight against the Ukrainian forces. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)
Similarly, the Ukrainian government also seems unwilling to accept the DPR as an independent state and instead labelled them as terrorists as well as establishing an ‘’Anti-Terror Operations’’ (ATO) zone. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) Their reasoning’s are unknown as Ukraine has kept relatively quiet about their activity in the Donbass region, merely stating that they are ‘’fighting terrorists’’.

Another main player that keeps themselves in the background is the Russian Federation. Similarly, not much is known about the goals of the Russian Federation. However it could be expected that they are supporting the DPR in order to weaken Ukrainian forces.
 
Future predictions

For future predictions it is important to keep Russia in mind. The DPR’s military consists solely of militiamen and mercenaries, and therefore they should not be expected to hold out against the battle-hardened soldiers of Ukraine that fought in the civil war. (Business Ukraine, 2015)

Therefore the future predictions are likely that the DPR will fall inevitably. This can already be seen in the fact that Ukraine is overstepping the ceasefire and encroaching on DPR positions. With superior weaponry, artillery and tanks, as well as better trained infantry, the DPR seems to stand almost no chance and DPR survival would be considered a miracle.

However, the same was said of Ukraine, and therefore it would be worthwhile to consider the DPR’s survival as a second backup plan in case it does manage to survive the Ukrainian attacks.

In the case that the DPR falls under the Ukrainian forces, it is possible that the Russian Federation will act the same way towards the Donbass region as they did to the Crimean peninsula. They could mount an offensive under the pretence of protecting Russian citizens, and fight back the Ukrainians, after which a referendum would be held again.

If the DPR does not fall it seems reasonable to expect that the DPR turns into a pro-Russian state that will rely heavily on Russia for input on its foreign affairs, military capability, economic sustenance and other important factors in a government’s livelihood. This has already been expressed through the armament of the DPR militia as well as present Russian mercenaries. (KyivPost, 2014)
For Ukraine, the actions seem relatively easy to predict in comparison as there are many indicating factors already in play. The key assumption here is that Ukraine will continue the course it has set for itself in reclaiming the Donbass region. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016)

Following these actions, Ukrainian forces are expected to retake the Donbass relatively quickly after the insertion of their forces is complete. The fighting is expected to be brief and volatile, with the DPR forces being expected to rout relatively soon due to their inexperience in combat.

Dependant on whether the Russian Federation acts on this offensive, it remains to be seen if Ukraine will defend the Donbass or retreat. In the case that the Russian Federation does not act, it is likely that peace will return to the area and at that point it would be possible for the UN to launch an investigation into the war crimes committed by the two sides.

If the Russian Federation follows through with the predictions made in this report, it seems that Ukraine will have to defend the Donbass against the Russian troops. Due to superior manpower and troop training, it seems likely that these engagements will follow the same route as the ones in the Crimean peninsula – Russian forces will fight those of the Ukrainian military forces, engaging in ‘’tug of war’’ for a while before they push back the Ukrainians.
 
Bibliography
Business Ukraine. (2015, October 1). DEFENDING EUROPE: Time to acknowledge decisive role of Ukraine’s military miracle. Retrieved from Business Ukraine: bunews.com.ua/opinion/item/defending-e..
Donbass International News Agency. (2016, October 4). DNI News. Retrieved from Ukrainian military shell industrial zone territory near Yasinovataya: dninews.com/article/ukrainian-military..
Donbass International News Agency. (2016, October 4). Donetsk Defense: Situation Report, 04.10.16. Retrieved from DNI News: dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-si..
Informatsionnoje telegrafnoje agentstvo Rossii. (2014, June 27). South Ossetia recognizes independence of Donetsk People’s Republic. Retrieved from TASS Russian News Agency: tass.ru/en/world/738110
KyivPost. (2014, December 26). Head of Sverdlovsk special forces veterans union: ‘I help to send volunteers to war in Ukraine’. Retrieved from KyivPost: web.archive.org/web/20141226123158/htt..
Southfront Analysis Intelligence. (2016, November 29). Military Situation Remains Tense in Donbass Region. Retrieved from South Front: southfront.org/military-situation-rema..
Southfront Analysis Intelligence. (2016, September 30). Ukrainian Armed Forces Send Women to Contact Line in Donbass Instead of ATO Fugitive Fighters. Retrieved from South Front: southfront.org/ukrainian-armed-forces-..