Okay, I want to put across my case, and it's one that will thoroughly assess the situation. I've played it fair, so I'll summarize my problems with that.
@kingkonradI would hardly call this a stalingrad, mostly cause such a battle is all but impossible in the middle ages. Without rifles, smgs, machineguns and VASTLY out numbering the Germans stalingrad wouldn't have happend... if the Crakehall's have already taken a few gates and are assaulting the walls odds are the will win, street to street is much harder when everyone is fighting in melee.
Sure, I may have exaggerated there, BUT, do you think the Crakehalls will just march in, kill everyone? It's not an open field- if it were, you'd have won easily. It's a highly-built up city, with alleys, tracks, a hill, and Reachmen who are waiting for the inevitable, who know the odds, and who are sitting there for Westermen to run to them, because they have to cut through. The Crakehalls have likely taken two gates, the wall is going to crumble, but would you think that a commander like Willas, Owain or Garland would have let the Reachmen all huddle in once place? They're distracted, sure, but it would take a matter of time for a line to reforge higher in the city, and bam. It's tight knit war, and swords might not be guns, sure. But they're fighting close in, on tight streets, and the concentration of that is what is similar, not the death toll, or outnumbering. The Russians won Stalingrad because they flanked it, and cut the Germans off, and sending tens of thousands to die. Think that Medieval war is different, in a city of similar proportion, with only a few ways through? You can cut through it....but the bulk of what helps is number, with skill, courage and equipment something I would deem negligible due to the differing and similar reasons that both Reach and Westerman forces have.
@kingkonrad It's hard to cause massive casualties and take none of your own or at least very few, to do so you have to get into close combat... I'm sorry but medieval history shows that once the numerically superior force is on the walls and in the streets... the fight is basically decided. Kevans 100 men are irrelevant because the reachmen will simply be unable to inflict the casualties needed to drive the Crakehall's back without losing to many of their own... it's simply the way medieval warfare is, melee combat in general.
Kevan's 100 might be 100 Reachmen, and if they are, they're not worth 300 Reachmen. They'll fight smart, not stupid, they'll be fast, not immobile, they'll know where to go to make the greatest impact. Also, concentric defenses, paths of approach, the fact that it's a fucking hill, and any siege-attack requires a minimum of 2:1 outnumbering to even have a chance means that it's difficult, challenging....a forced move, and one that makes sense out of desperation, not out of pure knowledge of victory. Defending a point is easier than attacking, and this is universal, be this Roman, Greek, Medieval, Napoleonic, or Modern combat, because you'll know what you're holding better than your enemy knows what they're attacking, and that they need to take paths, routes, and directions inside, tiring themselves to the target while the defenders sit and wait for the men to come to them. There's countless examples I can show you of a small force holding larger forces easily at bay throughout history, and it isn't the obvious ones from your Greek knowledge- this is not one of those situations anyway, I'll give you that. But it is one where there's some degree of shit being held, and trust me- it'll offer a far greater set of RPing opportunities for me, you, Blue, shit, for ANY character that is in King's Landing to keep it going.
Mix that with westerlands forged heavy armor and weapons and the fact they are basically a standing army and... I'm sorry if I sound like vhagar but... kings landing is lost if the Crakehall forces have started forcing their way in
Bullshit. I call horseshit on that one- they're a standing army, well so are the Reachman retinues in that sense? You CAN'T have a standing army, you have levies, and retinues- the latter are semi-professional anyway, and ANYWHERE in Westeros, this is the case, Dorne to the Reach, to the North's ranger patrols, because the fact is, you don't have constantly 45,000 men- these people are peasants who have been armed and or trained, and then brought to the fight from bannermen, of varying quality. Men who like fighting, who are probably either landholders anyway or under that land who want a little coin for fighting/garrisoning. That and the fact that "armour" is something the Reach does anyway...it's all the fucking same. It's like saying "But we've got better soldiers than you in every way", which I cite a post earlier on regarding the Retinues and the forces of the Reach and you should really have defined yourself, means you're likely to be making that bit up. Remember what I said ages, and ages ago, intricately detailing what the Retinue is made up of? It's not just peasants, it's a mixture from heavy Reach Knights to some in mail, to everything between- and armour doesn't dictate skill, anyway....from their weapons to where they come from, in what way, and what they're there to do- you know, hold a siege, hold a defense, not to attack...they're entrenched. Remember, these men are likely waiting to hold the line...they know where to fall back to, and if you've ever heard of the concentric form of defense, it is more than likely that from Aegon's time, the numerous walls of King's Landing go all the way back up to the Red Keep. It's a long, drawn out, hard fight, to go past each wall, killing people, cleaning up, regrouping, carrying on. It doesn't happen in a day. It happens in anything from days to a week, slowly, surely, breaking, breaking, cutting, cleaving, straight in.
In conclusion, what's going to happen is a drawn-out fight, and sure, I'm not saying my Reachmen will kick your ass or we'll throw you out, harhah, no, it's going to be a fight that is going to cause thousands upon thousands of deaths, both sides are going to suffer, and most of all, I would think through the strategy and see that in any war, attacking requires numerical advantage AND the ability to drag a fight out longer than your enemy can, ie. the Reachmen who still are supported navally (this has been mentioned in the past, and if you say to me the Crakehall fleet can entirely defeat the Pyke Fleet, AND be in King's Landing blockading against a Targaryen fleet already, is bullshit....I say only Redwynes, which again, I've said), is difficult. Gerald has thought it through, but he's acted on impulse, on a desire to stop any consolidation, which is happening as we fucking speak in King's Landing- it's a move that threatens the Reach before it can do anything, and it's dangerous, that much is certain. It's an action, not lingering and waiting. And that is why it matters- because it's significant in that way. Who knows who wins and who loses- but I would say, just slow the hell down, and realize that it isn't going to just happen in a snap.
Attacking a sieged city is difficult, it's risky, it's bold and ambitious. Medieval warfare RELIES on siege combat to starve, weaken and completely cripple a city, before entering. King's Landing has been under siege for barely two weeks, and they could last another four if they had to...but we know that the Tyrells are trying to reinforce, and shit, if Drogon was seen, they'd want to get the fuck out of an open field. It makes sense, I cannot argue against that. So yes, while the Reachmen have the odds stacked against them, they can hold a line going slowly backward toward the Red Keep and the east of the city, for how long, is anyone's guess.... I'm going to say that as my conclusion- don't be cocky about it, I've played quite fairly up to now, playing the advantages and disadvantages of the Reach quite well, and I get that you want to be involved in scoring a victory, that it's something that seems attractive, and that yes, you outnumber me two to one, that you flaunt all this stuff and I'm meant to just suck it and see. I know what the Crakehalls have, and what the Reach thinks they do, two very different things- the best thing to do is not to rush things, assuming it's coming on a plate- the reality is different, and as you'll see, the fight will take time, regardless of whatever Kevan does- it might be easier, but it won't just give you everything at once. You'll also know that Medieval warfare is very long, with drawn-out affairs. This isn't Stannis Baratheon's D-Day in the Blackwater, this is running through the city streets, block by block, with Reachmen knowing that it's happening.
I like this RP a lot, and I've invested a lot of my time into explaining that- it's the best explanation I can give, and everything that I state that the Reach has, I've put OOC or IC, as an acknowledged point. Don't force superiority down my throat- I know these things already about what you have, on paper, in practice, and in that IC, and I know that yes, the Reach will lose, it's a fucking battle of this kind, and eventually, they'll get screwed over, if you know, nothing changes. If, nothing changes. I've got sympathy on that front- but I mean, don't start saying that the battle is already won, don't be cocky about that- if the Crakehalls are, so be it, but I don't like it one bit when I hear assertions. What I've said are maybes, even so- you have to see how it plays out, and in what direction it ends up going.