Frokane's Mildly Politcal Hangout Thread

[Penny]

The North Korean's have no incentive to get rid of their nukes. I suspect this is just an attempt to take advantage of a chaotic white house. I hope im wrong and that Trump achieves some sort of lasting change but this is the same old DPRK play. Posture, play for concessions, keep it going for their own view of national security.

[The Harbinger of Ferocity]

I have strong doubts that the current administration will make any sort of deals or compromises that are not, at least in majority and large part, asking of the North Korean regime before anything is done in turn for them. No less, I certainly am not buying into a "chaotic White House" as an argument. They have been very consistent on their policy and stance with North Korea, no mixed messages, no beating around the bush.

If Kim Jong Un did anything to create a credible threat they would reduce the north half of the peninsula to cinder with surgical strikes and probably low-yield weapons. The "Fire and Fury" we kept hearing about.

I am more confident that the regime is attempting to play this for the long term. Snubbing the President of the United States does nothing but hurt them at this point, even on the global stage. Actually speaking to him, in person, would do a lot more to legitimize North Korea and their stance. Granted Donald Trump will get plenty of kudos, but suddenly a number of people, likely the same fawning over them at the Olympics, are going to sympathize more and ease back.

If they are smart, they play nice with the current administration, then do whatever they want after, probably when we end up right back on the track of threatening them with political posturing and doing nothing.

[Polymorpheus]

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[The Harbinger of Ferocity]

There is greater reason to believe Kim Jong Un needs to save face than continue to flail against a hardline stance. No less, this is likely in part well born of the consequence that might be the direct tightening the noose around his nuclear proliferation. There is rumor the talks have already actually happened, the agendas already set, objectives finished, but they are going through the motions, see the Olympics, direct talks in the South, and that out of the blue meetings between two heads of state on short notice are unusual, let alone the detonation-in-place that happened at a research site might not have been total accident. Some go so far as a myth about the Forbidden City being a meeting between the states.

Personally I am not buying any of that as truth, but I am certainly going to agree that culturally and on a global political scale, the North Koreans, Kim Jong Un in particular, have no other good options. The difficulty does not arise in some plan that will not effectively do anything or escalate, but keeping the momentum going; if you pull the punch at the end, say after this administration, you lose. In order to legitimize and cement itself North Korea needs to play by newer rules, which it seems to be testing out. As we know it, their regime will not survive if they go down that route without developing cracks and chinks in its armor and perhaps ultimately collapsing. This is the long game, one we have played before with the Soviet Union on a far more grand scale.

The real issue lies in that appeasement has never worked and never will work. This is only a wasted exercise if the defensive posture is ended and the United States backs down, which would be absolutely catastrophic but not out of the realm of possibility for future administrations; the North Koreans will gladly walk right over the United States and without having to fire a single shot.

[Polymorpheus]

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[mdk]

The North Korean's have no incentive to get rid of their nukes.

@Penny

I mean, they do now. This isn't happening in a vacuum. We ratcheted up the sanctions to biblical levels and followed through on enforcement (and got China to follow through on enforcement too, which is absurd). This isn't Kim tapping out before the wrestling even starts -- we've got him in a headlock with one arm, and the other arm is putting a gun to his temple.

I'm not saying I expect Kim to suddenly drop the family tradition. I'm just saying, there's totally incentive to ditch the nukes. Will he? That seems optimistic. We've been putting in work though.

I'll just leave this here:

As far as the risk of dealing with a madman is concerned, that's his problem, not mine.

actual Trump joke

It's fucking working, how bout that.

[Polymorpheus]

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[mdk]

As they've always done.

Rephrased: the worst we can do in a negotiation is as good as anything we've ever gotten out of the DPRK.

I'm tempted to say that the fact a meeting is happening at all is, in itself, proof that the policy of increased pressure is working. I mean if it wasn't, why bother with the charade? This part of the policy worked. Any deal we make is a new ballgame, and we're gonna have to make sure those concerns are addressed. I know lots of ya don't have a lot of faith in the "Art of the Deal," but surely we can at least give the Mad Dog a chance to draw up something that works before we declare it a futile endeavor? We haven't even sat down yet, nothing's impossible.

I think Kim Jong-Un has self-interest. That oughta be all the leverage we need.

[Polymorpheus]

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[RabidRabbit]

>Stumbles onto thread.
>>Reads through the first few pages.

[Penny]

Actually, the worst that the USA can do in a negotiation is watch its President slowly die over the course of 3 weeks after the visit, because he didn't realize that the kimchi had a microgram of polonium-210 mixed into it.

@catchamber

The worst case scenario? This does actually result in the reunification of Korea. Admittedly with millions of casualties in SK and (possibly) Japan.

[Penny]

The Nuclear Program is a sort of national equity for DPRK. It makes no sense to give it up when you can borrow against it. DPRK policy has always reflected this.

[mdk]

The Nuclear Program is a sort of national equity for DPRK. It makes no sense to give it up when you can borrow against it. DPRK policy has always reflected this.

@Penny

US policy has always allowed this. Until now.

[mdk]

What exactly is there to be had by a sitting President visiting Kim Jong-un, versus sending some other official to speak on their behalf? Alternatively, can't the USA just sit back and watch the North Korean people turn against their leader because he put them in a fucked up situation, then send a dignitary to speak to the new leaders?

@catchamber

Refugee crisis mostly, is the reason we don't wanna do that. If the Kim dynasty fails, for all its bullshit, that's actually way worse for the global economy. Well, China and ROK's economy, but mostly China, and therefore the world. Now that's not, you know, non-starter -- the DPRK with nuke-capable ICBMs (they don't quite have that yet) would be worse. It's worth sitting down with the guy if we go in with the objective of trying to avoid either of those two outcomes.

[Polymorpheus]

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[POOHEAD189]

Are we now calling a Twitter war U.S. policy?

[Penny]

I can't believe no one ever thought of talking tough and coming to the negotiating table with the North Koreans. That will surely convince the regime to throw away its only guarantee of survival. Its so simple!

[mdk]

<Snipped quote by mdk>
Funny that you mention refugees, because China's already preparing for that.

@catchamber

tents aren't really the issue.

As for trade, 0.14% of Chinese exports went to North Korea, 0.16% of Chinese imports came from North Korea, while 4.47% of Chinese exports went to South Korea, and 10.01% of Chinese imports came from South Korea. China can basically shrug at the idea of economic ties with North Korea being severed.

Yep. Xi Jinping is a big part of the reason this is working.

For the record though, looking at the DPRK's on-the-books exports is a mistake. The CIA world factbook *used* to list illicit arms as their primary export -- that's been changed since the last time I looked it up, now it's coal and minerals, but I'm not entirely buying that.

[mdk]

I can't believe no one ever thought of talking tough and coming to the negotiating table with the North Koreans. That will surely convince the regime to throw away its only guarantee of survival. Its so simple!

@Penny

We made the nuclear program into a liability. That's the change.

[Penny]

No you haven't. The Nuclear program is (at least in their minds) the corner stone of their security. They have NO incentive to give it up and its hard to see what could be offered to them that would be an incentive. What they can do is ease the tensions a little and gain some international legitimacy by conducting another meaningless round of summits.