[IC] Myriad Reality

[Threads of Fate]

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What are the best and worst possible probabilities that we might face?

@System

Could you be more specific? Overall, the worst we can face is a zero-percent chance in some circumstances I can't predict. The best is a forty-seven percent chance if we manage to not only stop the war from leaving the galaxy it's currently stuck in, but also have all of both sides wiped out and all of the most powerful undecideds join us.

[System]

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Could you be more specific? Overall, the worst we can face is a zero-percent chance in some circumstances I can't predict. The best is a forty-seven percent chance if we manage to not only stop the war from leaving the galaxy it's currently stuck in, but also have all of both sides wiped out and all of the most powerful undecideds join us.

@Threads of Fate

What factors have you accounted for to make your estimations?

[Threads of Fate]

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What factors have you accounted for to make your estimations?

@System

For the zero percent, it's the Codex all splitting to one of the sides or flat out joining Nyarlathotep. Both have reasonably low probabilities, but they exist. Beyond that, I feel like I've explained it already. I can repeat if you'd like.

[System]

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For the zero percent, it's the Codex all splitting to one of the sides or flat out joining Nyarlathotep. Both have reasonably low probabilities, but they exist. Beyond that, I feel like I've explained it already. I can repeat if you'd like.

@Threads of Fate

There are uncountable different possible scenarios, but I'd like to know how likely each must be for you to consider it.

[Stabby]

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Shinji:
Yes. If you could, I'l need some time. Is there anything you can do to hold off any stragglers? All it'll take is 10 minutes.

@souleaterfan320

Hold them off from the building, or the places you want to place the charges?

[Threads of Fate]

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There are uncountable different possible scenarios, but I'd like to know how likely each must be for you to consider it.

@System

The lowest and highest are what I'm focusing on right now. As good as I am, there is a headache when it comes to trying to come up with a scenario, then check it, then alter it, check it, ad nauseam. It's much easier to check for highs and lows.

[System]

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The lowest and highest are what I'm focusing on right now. As good as I am, there is a headache when it comes to trying to come up with a scenario, then check it, then alter it, check it, ad nauseam. It's much easier to check for highs and lows.

@Threads of Fate

Are you implying that no scenario exists in concept that guarantees a victory?

[Threads of Fate]

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Are you implying that no scenario exists in concept that guarantees a victory?

@System

No plausible scenarios. There are theoretical ones, such as, say, a Codi with a sufficient power of negation being born. Or Nyarlathotep getting bored and deciding to stop on her own. Assuming she's genuine in her desires to take over Existence, there are none that I can see that give us even a fifty percent chance.

[System]

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No plausible scenarios. There are theoretical ones, such as, say, a Codi with a sufficient power of negation being born. Or Nyarlathotep getting bored and deciding to stop on her own. Assuming she's genuine in her desires to take over Existence, there are none that I can see that give us even a fifty percent chance.

@Threads of Fate

What is the lower bound of probability before a scenario is implausible?

[Threads of Fate]

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What is the lower bound of probability before a scenario is implausible?

@System

If it is less than fifteen percent, I consider it implausible.

[System]

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If it is less than fifteen percent, I consider it implausible.

@Threads of Fate

*Nods and holds my hand to my face*
If we reduce the margin of implausibility, is there another scenario that increases our odds further?

[Threads of Fate]

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*Nods and holds my hand to my face*
If we reduce the margin of implausibility, is there another scenario that increases our odds further?

@System

...
Hmm. If we lower it to ten percent... I suppose there is one other. If we got all of the replacement moderators... We'd have a fifty-four percent chance of victory, given the same variables as our forty-seven percent plausible chance.

[System]

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...
Hmm. If we lower it to ten percent... I suppose there is one other. If we got all of the replacement moderators... We'd have a fifty-four percent chance of victory, given the same variables as our forty-seven percent plausible chance.

@Threads of Fate

*Stares forward*
Fifty-four percent.

[Threads of Fate]

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*Stares forward*
Fifty-four percent.

@System

Correct.

[Disdain]

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Correct.

@Threads of Fate

Is there no way that bringing in outside help beyond the Codex will help raise our chances of victory? I don't want to be a gambler, especially not when all of Existence is at stake.

[System]

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Correct.

@Threads of Fate

At five percent?

[Threads of Fate]

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Is there no way that bringing in outside help beyond the Codex will help raise our chances of victory? I don't want to be a gambler, especially not when all of Existence is at stake.

@Disdain

As I said, that falls under improbability.

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At five percent?

@System

...

At that low, we could just let the two fight in person, which means we have a sixty-seven percent chance of defeating the victor if it's Azathoth, and a sixty-one percent chance if it's Nyarlathotep. Specifically, though, the casualties would be immeasurable throughout all of Existence. Those two don't fight like you or I would. And even then that's assuming that all of their followers of note are outright killed before their confrontation.

Otherwise... The only other option at that level that would increase our odds is to join one side outright, but then we're picking between two undesirable outcomes. We may as well just join Nyarlathotep and be done with it.

[System]

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As I said, that falls under improbability.

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...

At that low, we could just let the two fight in person, which means we have a sixty-seven percent chance of defeating the victor if it's Azathoth, and a sixty-one percent chance if it's Nyarlathotep. Specifically, though, the casualties would be immeasurable throughout all of Existence. Those two don't fight like you or I would. And even then that's assuming that all of their followers of note are outright killed before their confrontation.

Otherwise... The only other option at that level that would increase our odds is to join one side outright, but then we're picking between two undesirable outcomes. We may as well just join Nyarlathotep and be done with it.

@Threads of Fate

We run out of options at ten percent. I see.

[Threads of Fate]

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We run out of options at ten percent. I see.

@System

If you want the below one percent option, theoretically... If we gained enough of the mess of a System currently in place, we could use the Mechanisms of Existence in conjunction with the Mammon Machine... and we got the Administrator's help... We could trap Nyarlathotep using her own power and simply not free Azathoth. But that's not really an option, it's rather a dream within a dream within a dream.

[System]

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If you want the below one percent option, theoretically... If we gained enough of the mess of a System currently in place, we could use the Mechanisms of Existence in conjunction with the Mammon Machine... and we got the Administrator's help... We could trap Nyarlathotep using her own power and simply not free Azathoth. But that's not really an option, it's rather a dream within a dream within a dream.

@Threads of Fate

What would that entail?