Control VS Freedom

[Vilageidiotx]

So Boerd said
A facile and idealistic argument. The certain prospect of the loss of nearly all international trade didn't stop Hitler. Germany and Britain were each other's biggest trading partner pre WW1I wish we lived in the world where this was true, but I never mistake the world as I wish it to be with the world as it is.

And don't mistake movies for reality, my young friend. It's not a simple as big-bad-evil guys cackling on mountain tops, with their bottomless bank accounts and endless supply of lackies who don't need food or shelter. The real world is about economics first, especially when talking about geopolitics. The Soviet Union fell to our economy, not to our military, and that was at a time when they had virtually no financial connections beyond the iron curtain.

[Mortalbean]

So Boerd said
A facile and idealistic argument. The certain prospect of the loss of nearly all international trade didn't stop Hitler. Germany and Britain were each other's biggest trading partner pre WW1I wish we lived in the world where this was true, but I never mistake the world as I wish it to be with the world as it is.

You do realize that WW1 was entirely about Russia and had jack to do with France or Britain's politics? Germany was threatened by the Russians who were starting to develop their industry which when combined with their superior man power would have made them stronger than anyone else in Europe. This caused Germany to launch a pre-emptive offensive called the Schlieffen plan that involved a quick occupation of France by invading through neutral Belgium. This was done to avoid having to confront France and Russia at the same time on two fronts as the two had close ties at the time. Germany didn't realize that the invasion of neutral Belgium would drag Britain into the war before German forces had occupied France.

[So Boerd]

Vilageidiotx said
And don't mistake movies for reality, my young friend. It's not a simple as big-bad-evil guys cackling on mountain tops, with their bottomless bank accounts and endless supply of lackies who don't need food or shelter. The real world is about economics first, especially when talking about geopolitics. The Soviet Union fell to our economy, not to our military, and that was at a time when they had virtually no financial connections beyond the iron curtain.

Suppose I grant the premise. Let's say the end of trade would annihilate both nations. So basically, functional nukes, with all the same theory involved. As evidenced by Korea, enormous conflicts between allies of nuclear states and nuclear states are still possible. Take the Kargil War

Or, like Korea. North Korea didn't care about Nukes.

You do realize that WW1 was entirely about Russia and had jack to do with France or Britain's politics? Germany was threatened by the Russians who were starting to develop their industry which when combined with their superior man power would have made them stronger than anyone else in Europe. This caused Germany to launch a pre-emptive offensive called the Schlieffen plan that involved a quick occupation of France by invading through neutral Belgium. This was done to avoid having to confront France and Russia at the same time on two fronts as the two had close ties at the time. Germany didn't realize that the invasion of neutral Belgium would drag Britain into the war

Britain didn't have to join. If the interdependency was a nuke like Village idiot says, then they wouldn't have.

[Mortalbean]

So Boerd said
Britain didn't have to join. If the interdependency was a nuke like Village idiot says, then they wouldn't have.

Britain did not enter the war of their own accord, they were allied with Belgium who was invaded by Germany. Britain couldn't afford to back out of the agreement as that would cripple their ability to secure allies in the future.

Edit:Germany thought Britain wouldn't honor the treaty because Britain was already on sketchy terms with a lot of the big players in Europe and Germany thought that the British would give up on the treaty because they wouldn't want to fight a war.

What Germany didn't realize was that Britain had done secret diplomacy with France and Russia over Egypt.

Got school now...

[So Boerd]

Mortalbean said
Britain did not enter the war of their own accord, they were allied with Belgium who was invaded by Germany. Britain couldn't afford to back out of the agreement as that would cripple their ability to secure allies in the future.Edit:Germany thought Britain wouldn't honor the treaty because Britain was already on sketchy terms with a lot of the big players in Europe and Germany thought that the British would give up on the treaty because they wouldn't want to fight a war.What Germany didn't realize was that Britain had done secret diplomacy with France and Russia over Egypt.Got school now...

Just like the US will back up the Phillippines and Japan.

[Mortalbean]

So Boerd said
Just like the US will back up the Phillippines and Japan.

Read about the Entente Cordial, it was what I was talking about at the end of my post.

It was a somewhat secretive agreement between France and Britain that marked the beginning of the end of a feud that had stretched on almost a millennium. This meant that in WW1 Britain got to choose between upholding their agreement with Belgium, Staying allies with France who was not going to threaten their colonies or lose Belgium as an ally, likely feud with France again which means Russia would be more likely to attack India, while dealing with a much stronger Germany with whom they had an inconsistent relationship with(mostly due to a navel arms race which had taken place between Britain and Germany just prior to the war despite being big trading partners.)

Also you can't forget France was a significant trading partner with Britain at the time.

[Darcs]

Mortalbean said You do realize that WW1 was entirely about Russia and had jack to do with France or Britain's politics? Germany was threatened by the Russians who were starting to develop their industry which when combined with their superior man power would have made them stronger than anyone else in Europe. This caused Germany to launch a pre-emptive offensive called the Schlieffen plan that involved a quick occupation of France by invading through neutral Belgium. This was done to avoid having to confront France and Russia at the same time on two fronts as the two had close ties at the time. Germany didn't realize that the invasion of neutral Belgium would drag Britain into the war before German forces had occupied France.

Russia practically goaded Germoney though, they only got their troops ready because they didn't want another embarrassing military defeat, and Japan absolutely #reking their shit was still fresh on Russia's mind.

So Boerd said North Korea didn't care about Nukes.

NK is China's lap dog.

[Mortalbean]

Darcs said
Russia practically goaded Germoney though, they only got their troops ready because they didn't want another embarrassing military defeat

I have no idea what to make of this statement. Did you mean to say that Russia was goaded by Germany?

[Dinh AaronMk]

I'm only sitting here wondering if Mortalbean's commentary on the start of the First World War is either political commentary he's absorbed on the topic, or is some incomplete and incorrect version of it. Because that's certainly not how I know it.

[Mortalbean]

Dinh AaronMk said
I'm only sitting here wondering if Mortalbean's commentary on the start of the First World War is either political commentary he's absorbed on the topic, or is some incomplete and incorrect version of it. Because that's certainly not how I know it.

You mean the assassination of Frans Ferdinand and the Black Hand and all that? That stuff is simply the match that set off the powder keg. There is more to the start of WW1 than just an Austrian getting shot. Right now there is a pretty damn good series of videos being produced called The Great War on YT about WW1 that are following WW1 week by week exactly 100 years later. They are produced by some television channel in Europe and are pretty "fair and balanced". They are a great introduction to the topic of WW1 and include a series specifically focused on pre-WW1 politics.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Mortalbean said
You mean the assassination of Frans Ferdinand and the Black Hand and all that? That stuff is simply the match that set off the powder keg. There is more to the start of WW1 than just an Austrian getting shot. Right now there is a pretty damn good series of videos being produced called The Great War on YT about WW1 that are following WW1 week by week exactly 100 years later. They are produced by some television channel in Europe and are pretty "fair and balanced". They are a great introduction to the topic of WW1 and include a series specifically focused on pre-WW1 politics.

Yea sure, but it was simply Russia declaring war on Russia because they were "afraid" of their industry. They went to war because they had to.

Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia over the Arch-duke, which prompted Russia to declare war on Austria-Hungary yo protect their Balkan lapdog, prompting Germany to get more involved and to demand Russia cease their general mobilization. Russia refused and Germany had to act on their commitments to its allies and declared war on Russia.

At the same time they demanded France not get involved, in response France mobilized her reserves which threatened Germany.

What arms race there was didn't initially involve Russia, given they were in any case an industrial cluster-fuck incapable of doing much of anything (even more so their army where even though it was large it was about as effective as erectile dysfunction). The arms race that existed was predominately between the Germans and the British with the goal of the Germans being to equip the Kaiserreichmarine to counter the British Royal Navy. France followed later because fuck it. Russian naval capability was destroyed if not greatly humiliated by Japan prior to the build-up so they didn't have anything to build off of and got themselves ruled out for the Anglo-German dick measuring contest.

And there's a reason Stalin in Russia is hailed as the hero to turn Russia into a nation of factories from ploughs. They were all rural up until he came in, with some minor industrial capability.

But as a whole Russian foreign adventurism had been one failure after the next. Their self-proclamation as being the Defenders of Christendom resulted in their defeat in the Crimean War and the Russian-Japanese war had sunk their navy. Their only successes only came against the more bloated and late-game incompetent Qing dynasty when they fired a few cannons into the air and got Manchuria. They weren't the most terrifying force to fight, esspecially when all they had to fight and win against where the remnants of the old Mongol Khanate.

[Mortalbean]

Dinh AaronMk said
Yea sure, but it was simply Russia declaring war on Russia because they were "afraid" of their industry. They went to war because they had to.Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia over the Arch-duke, which prompted Russia to declare war on Austria-Hungary yo protect their Balkan lapdog, prompting Germany to get more involved and to demand Russia cease their general mobilization. Russia refused and Germany had to act on their commitments to its allies and declared war on Russia.At the same time they demanded France not get involved, in response France mobilized her reserves which threatened Germany.What arms race there was didn't initially involve Russia, given they were in any case an industrial cluster-fuck incapable of doing much of anything (even more so their army where even though it was large it was about as effective as erectile dysfunction). The arms race that existed was predominately between the Germans and the British with the goal of the Germans being to equip the Kaiserreichmarine to counter the British Royal Navy. France followed later because fuck it. Russian naval capability was destroyed if not greatly humiliated by Japan prior to the build-up so they didn't have anything to build off of and got themselves ruled out for the Anglo-German dick measuring contest

What you ignore is that Russia had begun to modernize, it's economy was growing rapidly and it had started to build railroads. The Germans thought that by 1917-1918 they would be no match for Russia. This was one of the big reasons why the Germans gave their blank check to Austria-Hungary during the July Crisis. Serbia was seen as essentially a satellite of Russia and had recently grown in strength during the Balkan Wars, this was compounded with the fact that in the Austrian government there was a strong imperialist group which wanted to declare war on Serbia. One of the arguments these imperialists used was that Russia and Serbia were going to be too powerful to stop soon and that unless they declared war on Serbia now then even with Italy and Germany at their side Austria-Hungary would be overrun.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Russia didn't even have a native industry to begin with. A a significant portion was foreign owned and out of the central government's reach and could - at any point - be pulled back and weakened Russian industrialism.

And I again turn to their military record: with the exception of having to fight basically third-world powers and the Turks (which were more a rotten corpse of a great thing than the Russians were) they had an abysmal record and I can't believe your claims Europe would be afraid of Russia when their navy sat at the bottom of the sea thanks to Japan (which had just left feudalism fifty years prior) and they were humiliated by France, Great Britain, AND the Ottomans over Crimea.

German Industrialism had also exploded over this period as well, which was their inspiration for expansion of the Germany Navy.

[Mortalbean]

Dinh AaronMk said
Russia didn't even have a native industry to begin with. A a significant portion was foreign owned and out of the central government's reach and could - at any point - be pulled back and weakened Russian industrialism.And I again turn to their military record: with the exception of having to fight basically third-world powers and the Turks (which were more a rotten corpse of a great thing than the Russians were) they had an abysmal record and I can't believe your claims Europe would be afraid of Russia when their navy sat at the bottom of the sea thanks to Japan (which had just left feudalism fifty years prior) and they were humiliated by France, Great Britain, AND the Ottomans over Crimea.German Industrialism had also exploded over this period as well, which was their inspiration for expansion of the Germany Navy.

Please check page 10-12 of this document. The Germans were not scared of the current Russia. They were certain that she was unprepared, it was her future state that they were "pessimistic" about. German officials thought that if Germany and Russia were to fight a war then it would be better to fight it now than later and they should take advantage of the present situation. In addition on page 4 there is an estimation of the percentage of world power of each of the countries. Note how Russia is always within one percentage point of Germany.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Mortalbean said
Please check page 10-12 of document. The Germans were not scared of the current Russia. They were certain that she was unprepared, it was her future state that they were "pessimistic" about. German officials thought that if Germany and Russia were to fight a war then it would be better to fight it now than later and they should take advantage of the present situation. In addition on page 4 there is an estimation of the percentage of world power of each of the countries. Note how Russia is always within one percentage point of Germany.

Your report at the same time points out in several points there and later than Russia was considerably crippled. Even with gaining economic strength a large sum of its army was devoted to internal control over projecting its influence (which rounds back to the past major military failures and their own image of being inadequate). As well, Russia is noted by the Germans and any other observer there's a haunting "specter of Revolution" which likely could have launched with or without the war, after all this is significant class-divide within Russia which would no doubt spur larger class-conflict as is the proponent of Socialist revolution the likes of Trotsky and Lenin.

Furthermore through the 19th centuries and early 20th centuries the Russian nation was time in and out rocked by coup, uprisings, and [failed] revolution making the country even more unsafe for itself. It probably would have caught fire in another wave of revolution.

Russia may have had greatly expanding wealth but it didn't go to the working class. Sooner or later that'd call for large-scale disenfranchisement.

[ASTA]

A discussion about government control vs freedom turns into a historical debate between two users.

[Dinh AaronMk]

ASTA said
A discussion about government control vs freedom turns into a historical debate between two users.

We're one major war off from basically coming around full circle.

[Darcs]

Dinh AaronMK said We're one major war off from basically coming around full circle.

We're also at point where the lack of a major war breaks that circle, and modern trends cast doubt on the likelihood of a WW3 any time soon.

Mortalbean said I have no idea what to make of this statement. Did you mean to say that Russia was goaded by Germany?

I meant exactly what I said, Russia moved their troops before they were involved because they were scarred of being made bitches again. If Russia hadn't mobilized then Germany wouldn't have any need to, and WWI would have stayed a small conflict in the Balkans.

[Mortalbean]

Dinh AaronMk said
Your report at the same time points out in several points there and later than Russia was considerably crippled. Even with gaining economic strength a large sum of its army was devoted to internal control over projecting its influence (which rounds back to the past major military failures and their own image of being inadequate). As well, Russia is noted by the Germans and any other observer there's a haunting "specter of Revolution" which likely could have launched with or without the war, after all this is significant class-divide within Russia which would no doubt spur larger class-conflict as is the proponent of Socialist revolution the likes of Trotsky and Lenin.Furthermore through the 19th centuries and early 20th centuries the Russian nation was time in and out rocked by coup, uprisings, and [failed] revolution making the country even more unsafe for itself. It probably would have caught fire in another wave of revolution.Russia may have had greatly expanding wealth but it didn't go to the working class. Sooner or later that'd call for large-scale disenfranchisement.

Almost all of your points are moot because the real state of Russia doesn't matter at all in how Germany is acting. Germany acts based on their perception of Russia and Germany doesn't appear to have ever developed a time machine to look into the future and see that Russia wouldn't become a dominating powerhouse. The report clearly states that the Germans know about the "specter of revolution" yet still feared what Russia could become. German officials thought that "The opportunity for war was 'unlikely to reappear under such favorable conditions'". The report for all of page 11 starting on the second paragraph shows that the Russian rearmament program looked, to the Germans, like it was going to be incredibly successful and the third paragraph(which is a block quote) perfectly encapsulates the pressure the Germans were feeling with regards to Russia.

[quote=Darcs]

Dinh AaronMK said
I meant exactly what I said, Russia moved their troops before they were involved because they were scarred of being made bitches again. If Russia hadn't mobilized then Germany wouldn't have any need to, and WWI would have stayed a small conflict in the Balkans.

That isn't quite what I thought your first statement meant so thank you for clarifying.

Russia was very sensitive to being made to look the fool as you have pointed out but they didn't mobilize until Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Germany then sent a warning and after that declared war.(The Russians claimed they were only mobilizing against Austria-Hungary). What I am trying to say is that Germany and Austrian-Hungary aggression/imperialism were being significantly driven by the rising Russian threat. In the matter of Germany declaring war on Russia as I have already discussed with Dinh AaronMk, German officials thought that 1914 was going to be the time to try and bring Russia to it's knees before it could get powerful enough to roflstomp Germany. Germans were also not scared of fighting a two front war against France(who would enter the war should Germany declare war on Russia) and Russia because they knew the Russians would take a long time to mobilize and they felt comfortable in the Schlieffen plan's success and planned to have occupied Paris by Christmas. This meant that Germany could support their closest ally while simultaneously taking down two major threats to Germany, becoming a super power and achieving the dream of a German Europe.

[Mortalbean]

Sorry for the double post