Who is the Murderer? {Game}

[Shoryu Magami]

The verdict:

@Luna_Maria - 1 Vote
@Witch Cat - 1 Vote
@Raddum - 4 Votes (eliminated by majority vote)

@carla6677 has been eliminated by the murderer.

Those who remain in the game are @Luna_Maria, @Pudding, @Witch Cat, @NekoMizu, and @Ailyn Evensen. Your sassy Spiderman comrade is gone, and the blonde Disney girl with a chameleon has tragically been murdered. It's time for round two's voting to begin, and here's hoping you can find the murderer before more damage is done.

Let your despair amuse me. Have fun, peeps.

[Ailyn Evensen]

>pouts

Well shoot....

[Todd Howard]

r.i.p me

[Shoryu Magami]

r.i.p me

@Raddum

R.I.P.

Now, why aren't people wildly accusing each other yet why aren't you doing something, peeps?

[carla6677]

@Shoryu Magami next game me

[carla6677]

r.i.p me

@Raddum

That should be said to me
I WAS KILLED
Also I am somehow the Blonde Disney Girl with a chameleon according to @Shoryu Magami

[Shoryu Magami]

@carla6677
Your avatar's all I have to go off.

Anyway, spot's now been reserved.

[Pudding]

[@BlondeDisneyGirlwithachameleon]
I feel your pain from last game. Now, who will we pick on this round? ahahaha

[Shoryu Magami]

Now, who will we pick on this round? ahahaha

@Pudding

The first mug who looks at you the wrong way? I'd imagine whoever looks suspicious.

[Witch Cat]

We still have no clues, so it's still all guessing. I still strongly advocate for being given clues.

[Luna_Maria]

yeah, i agree. we should have clues. at the moment, i have no idea who it is.

at least i survived the first round. i usually die in the first round, due to reasons that are absolutely not my fault LOL!

[BrokenPromise]

Let's get some math up in here...



The killer has about a 14% chance of getting punished the first round (1 out of 7 outcomes)

The second round the killer has a 20% chance of getting punished. (1 out of 5 outcomes) If we look at their chances of being punished both rounds, it's closer to 31% (11 out of 35 outcomes)

The third round the killer has a 25% chance of getting punished in the final round. This has to do with how things are run. barring that and going by pure statistics (33%, 1 out of 3), there is just under a 46% chance the killer will be punished. (37 out of 85 outcomes)

So there you have it, things are slightly stacked in the killer's favor. Isn't that sad? It makes me sad...



But the stats only apply for a pure entropy play style.

For anyone wondering how I crunched the numbers for multiple rounds, you have to figure that if they were punished in the first round, they were also punished in every outcome of the second round, ETC.

EDIT: interestingly, if there were only 2 rounds starting with 5 people, the odds of the killer being punished is just a little under 47% (7 out of 15 outcomes) so that just goes to show you how meaningless that first round really is.

[Ailyn Evensen]

Let's get some math up in here...

@BrokenPromise

Let's not xD Math was my worst subject in school. All I can say is that it's not me (although I know everyone will say that, I guess it's up to you guys if you trust me on that statement).

[Pudding]

It's down to luck

@BrokenPromise

I understand...

[NekoMizu]

yo

[Shoryu Magami]

@Witch Cat@Luna_Maria
The problem with clues/hints/riddles is potentially making it too easy, so I'd need to be careful with something like that. I'm the type of person who'd very easily be able to work out the murderer if given even the subtlest of hint, so there's nothing to say people who play this game won't do the same.

@BrokenPromise@Pudding
It does come down to luck unless you can work out patterns in a person's behaviour, which is made a lot more difficult when playing this online instead of offline. It's still not impossible though, and I've seen the murderer get punished plenty of times on forums before -- they've even been punished in the first round. Speaking of which, the decision to have seven members was mostly for the sake of letting a good number of people get involved -- with five people the game ends too quickly, and with more than seven people (it's actually manageable, and is usually how it's done offline) it gets even harder to pick the murderer out online.

With all that said, I should mention that I'm open to suggestions for how to enhance or update the game, which is why I've considered Neko's idea about people getting some sort of clue.

@NekoMizu
Yo.

[BrokenPromise]

What's that?

Could it be that my math has caused some of you to... Despair?

[Shoryu Magami]

@BrokenPromise
I've had plenty of despair in my life without math, thank you very much. I'm mostly immune to it at this point.

As for the math itself, I mostly had the numbers you brought up in my head anyway. Realistically, in the third round each person who isn't the murderer has a 50% chance of getting it right if they point the finger since you can't vote for yourself -- this was something I brought up pages back.

Nevertheless...

SOMEBODY KILL SOMEBODY!

[Pudding]

Maybe we should kill @BrokenPromise and give her the despair she wants.

[BrokenPromise]

@Pudding


I'm cosplaying as Nagito, your argument is invalid.