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Current and y'all were mad i was out here talking about sucking toes. now you're stuck with this guy. hope you're happy, fools.
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3 days ago
i love your cat more than you btw
3 days ago
not to repeat it ad nauseam but my dating app entry is that i suck toes as long as they're white, baby blue, pink or french tipped
4 days ago
do [img]paste the url here[/img] and it'll work
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used to be a league guy but fortunately i dropped that habit
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Just an Aragorn looking for his Arwen


Most Recent Posts

@Therealslayer the problem is that I know Zayze is going abroad and doesn't want to haul around a PC. So, that's not a viable option for him. I was trying to provide a commentary that catered to his wishes, because I think even he himself knows that for 5000 dollars he could buy two PC's with the same specs as the laptop.
@ZayZe Are the parts worth 5000 dollars? No.
Are you going to find a laptop for less with the same components? No.

It's 'decent' prized for a laptop with these parts, but if it were a computer, the price tag would be lower. For a laptop I suppose that you'd end up paying 5000$ for these parts regardless. Not sure why some of the parts are even on there though. Biometric fingerprint scanner? Jeez.

I mentioned it before to you, so I won't reiterate the whole laptop ordeal. For a laptop, this is pretty high-end shit. Whether you wanna pay 5000$ for it is up to what value you attach to the laptop.
@Ruby thats great Ruby
2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami



Table of contents
  • Scenario description
  • Actors and response
  • Governmental response
  • International response
  • Yakuza (criminal) response
  • Nuclear response
  • Review and Analysis
  • Successes
  • Failures
  • Conclusion
  • Improvements to be made
  • Bibliography



Scenario description



Point of earthquake, 'reach' of tsunami.


The 2011 Tōhoku earthquake was the first incident in a series of unfortunate events. Following the earthquake, which occurred in the sea nearby the coastline of Sendai, a tsunami followed quickly after as a side effect of the under-sea earthquake. These type of earthquakes and tsunami’s happen frequently in the area in and around Japan, but the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake stands out as an even larger earthquake, ranking at the fourth largest earthquake in all the time where there have been records of the size and scale of earthquakes. (CBS news, 2011)

The ensuing tsunami caused waves that reportedly came as high as 40.5 meters. (NHK WORLD, 2011) This was a reason for the power network to fail in North-Eastern Japan, which caused a multitude of other problems and incidents. However it is extremely likely that the 40.5 meters high tsunami waves are a local phenomenon, as other sources indicated that local observation posts had estimated the heights to be closer to approximately 9.3 meters at its highest.



The lack of an organized output of information towards the media could be seen as the first in a string of negative management of the crisis, although it should be said that there was a noticeable lack of information, as is to be expected with a crisis of this magnitude. However the spreading of misinformation definitely was not a positive contributing factor to the crisis.

Furthermore the effects of the tsunami also hit civilians in areas that were less pronounced – the tsunami had swallowed entire areas in its water and as a result millions of people were now without a home, food or water. (NPR, 2011) During that time it was stated by former prime minister Naoto Kan that this was ‘’the most severe crisis since the war ended 65 years ago’’. (NPR, 2011)

During the earthquake and the tsunami, there were multiple factors that came into play and that showed how prepared the Japanese authorities were. There were also other actors, such as criminal organizations and the companies that owned nuclear energy plants in the affected area. This means that the crisis quickly escalated from a Japanese incident to a world-wide incident that required attention from not only Japan and their neighbours but also the global (nuclear) community, involving such superpowers as China, Russia and the United States of America. The incident was reported throughout the entire world and was a key point in the media for days, producing a media-hype where news agencies would report on the subject almost every day.

The national police association (NPA) of Japan has recently released more in depth numbers that offer a look into the destruction caused by the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. In total 15,894 people were killed as a result or as part of the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. Following that, 6,152 people have been (severely) injured. A further 2,561 have gone missing. (National Police Agency of Japan, 2016)

During the course of this report the process of the earthquake will be analysed and critically reviewed in order to give a set of recommendations that could aid in the event that such an incident occurs once more, whether that be in Japan or in any other country that houses is close to an area high in seismic activity, tsunami’s or nuclear facilities.

This particular case is an interesting crisis to analyse, because it involves a sequence of events that all caused a next event. The earthquake was a direct cause for the tsunami, which was on its own a direct cause for the nuclear plant malfunctioning. Therefore it can be deduced that the earthquake was a root cause for the other situations. As such the direct events of this earthquake fall under this crisis too, even if they can be regarded as their own crisis.

Actors and response


In the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake there were a lot of actors involved. Most of these have been identified as governmental organizations such as the police, hospitals, the army, and the fire departments. There are also a number of smaller, government-affiliated organizations involved on a smaller scale. These would include small governmental agencies, government officials and schools.

There are also several private organizations involved that played a large role. A particularly interesting footnote is that the Yakuza (the resident criminal organisation of the country of Japan) were heavily involved in the initial response and aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, as part of a non-government sanctioned effort.

Another key actor in the incident has been the companies presiding over the nuclear energy plants. The main power plant that was hit by the tsunami, and the power plant that received the most global attention, was the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.



Other power plants that suffered under the earthquake and the tsunami were the Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Plant, the Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant and finally the Tōkai nuclear power stations. All of these were damaged, however the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was the only plant to suffer such damages that radioactive particles were released. This caused the area to become contaminated with radioactivity.

Governmental response


The governmental response was primarily focussed on the shortage of food, water and other primary requirements that occurred after the incident. This was primarily done through three (3) channels.

The first channel was the joint operation between a ‘headquarters of emergent disasters’ and the ‘headquarters of response to nuclear crisis’ which became the main body of the entire response from the government. (Okada Norio, 2011) These headquarters were both lead by the prime minister of the country of Japan, Naoto Kan. This channel is to be seen as the most important channel of the governmental response, and it was a key factor in especially the nuclear crisis. During the duration of the nuclear crisis, prime minister Naoto Kan worked closely with the nuclear specialists of the Fukushima Daiichi plant, working together with them to come to a solution, or at the very least attempt to minimize the threat.

The second response came in the form of a government emergency response headquarters which would be led by the foreign minister. This headquarters seemed to be in charge of organising international efforts, as the minister stated that they would welcome foreign help in regards to the crisis. (Okada Norio, 2011)


Countries that promised support (no detailing of what support) in blue


The third and final governmental reaction came in the shape of another headquarters that was to be headed by the defense minister. This headquarters was dubbed the countermeasure headquarters, and given the occupation of its leader, surrounded the military operations that would be undertaken to help in the relief effort. A joint task force (JTF) called ‘Fuji’ was organised by the minister containing 100.000 officers. Approximately 180,000 military personnel were used in total. (Okada Norio, 2011) This seems to include foreign military personnel such as United States Marines.

International response


There was a large amount of NGO responses as can be imagined. Many organisations concerned themselves not only with the earthquake and tsunami, but also the nuclear crisis that came to light. The Japanese Red Cross stated that they had received over $1.000.000.000, - in donations. These donations were utilised heavily to dispatch over 200 emergency relief teams. Furthermore there were also reports of foreign organizations and governments sending emergency relief equipment, with over 1300 tonnes of relief goods arriving in Japan. (Okada Norio, 2011)

Approximately 7 UN organisations were involved in the crisis as well. A majority of them were concerned with the well-being of foreign people in the affected area. The World Health Organisation as well as the Food and Agriculture organisation worked together to inspect the quality of the food that would be exported from Japan or came from the ocean around Japan following the nuclear crisis as leakage of radioactive waste and particles had occurred at that point. (Okada Norio, 2011)

Yakuza (criminal) response


Contrary to what would be expected, the inhabitant criminals of Japan did not capitalize heavily on the crisis, instead offering help and support to citizens that were hit. They were among the first to offer help, arriving with busses and vans loaded with rice to hand out to those who had lost all they owned. This occurred previously as well in the Kanto and Hanshin earthquakes. (Matanle, 2011) These acts could be drawn back to the ‘respectable’ culture of the Yakuza, namely the Ninkyodo code.

It was also stated that 50 tonnes of supplies in 25 trucks were driven into town at night, where the supplies were handed out by men that were presumed to be Yakuza from the Inagawa-kai organisation. (Adelstein, Independent, 2011) The operations conducted by the yakuza went under much scrutiny as some said that there were hidden motives for the yakuza to operate like this. This criticism was waved away, with an unnamed source claiming that ‘’There are no yakuza or katagi (ordinary citizens) or gaijin (foreigners) in Japan right now. We are all Japanese. We all need to help each other.’’ (Adelstein, Yakuza to the Rescue, 2011)

According to some sources the yakuza discredited the government, stating that ‘’ It takes too long for the arm of the government to reach out here so it's important to do it now.’’ (Jones, 2011) That would mean that there is internal dispute between two bodies of response to the crisis and could indicate a lack of cooperation between the Yakuza and government. That is not so hard to imagine given the criminal activities that the Yakuza normally conduct. However it should be kept in mind that until recently, the yakuza and the government organisations were seen as relatively ‘close friends.’ Therefore, perhaps a closer cooperation could’ve been profitable for both parties.

Most of these activities went under the table as the Yakuza would not like to draw attention to itself. Since the NPA announced a crackdown on all criminal organisations (including the Yakuza) the yakuza has become less pronounced in the day-to-day life of the Japanese society. This was represented in the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake as well, as they operated mostly at night to cover up their operations in fear of police crackdowns or repercussions. (Adelstein, Independent, 2011)

Nuclear response


As mentioned before, the nuclear power plant employees, and their bosses, worked closely with the headquarters of response to nuclear crisis set up by Naoto Kan. They were involved in almost all steps of this process, as Naoto Kan and his own ministers and advisors would naturally lack the knowledge on nuclear plants to deal with this situation. (Matanle, 2011)

However they did not play quite as large a role as they perhaps should have. The operations that were conducted in the plants were often approved and submitted by the prime minister, or the headquarters. It seemed like the company was only there to offer advice and perhaps their expertise could have been used in a better way.

Review and Analysis


Successes


As earthquakes and tsunami are very prominent for the country of Japan, there were previously made plans available. In the Kanto and Hanshin earthquakes and their responses, there were a lot of errors. So much errors that the Yakuza was on the ground and helping earlier than the JSDF. The same thing occurred in 2011, however the effects were noticeably lessened. Furthermore in the Kanto and Hanshin earthquakes, Japan had declined help from other countries. This was no longer the case in 2011. (Matanle, 2011)

Based on the extremely bad results of the Kanto and Hanshin earthquakes, the government of Japan had come up with a new ‘rulebook’ for dealing with these situations. This rulebook consisted of the following principles.

1. The council (of headquarters) should not be partisan.
2. Discussions should have local ownership.
3. Discussions should result in ‘creative outcomes.’
4. Plans should have the support of the entire nation.
5. The plan should give ‘hope for the future’.
(Matanle, 2011)

Based on these principles it could be said that comparatively to prior events, Japan had definitely increased it’s positive factors when it came to dealing with large crisis’ like these.

Furthermore the Japanese people got increasingly larger access to news about seismic activity due to its importance to the wellbeing of the people. They got increasingly larger access to networks that let them know when seismic activity was detected. (Matanle, 2011) Using these networks it is possible to know, in advance, when an earthquake is going to occur and seek shelter, minimizing human lives lost in the crisis.

Another note to make is that the Japanese government has given increasingly larger powers to the defence forces of the country, especially in light of any crisis. It seems that whenever a crisis occurs the government grants the military more power and jurisdiction to allow them to cooperate with other governmental instances such as police. Not only does this occur during the crisis, but also ahead of it. Careful planning has allowed them to raise the number of people that can be evacuated. (Matanle, 2011)

Failures

It is hard to discern what the improvement points are for Japanese crisis management efforts. Most crisis management plans are based upon the careful deliberation of possible scenario’s and coming up with possible countermeasures that can be taken. Japan has already done these things extensively and they continue to do so, as is shown in their scientific progress towards researching seismologic activity.

Furthermore, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami were of a tremendous scale, as mentioned before. They were the fourth largest earthquake ever measured and as such it is hard for anyone to predict how big such an earthquake will be. The tsunami also can hardly be predicted, as it is reliant on the size and scale of the earthquake as well as its location.

Due to that it seems extremely unlikely that Japan can make any proper adjustments in its plans because it is practically impossible to come up with scenarios for all the locations, scales and settings due to the breadth and size of the scenarios.

The nuclear facilities are not up to standards, however, as is the case with most nuclear facilities worldwide. There are not enough back-up plans that are successful, since the backup plans for the plant at the time of the crisis were limited to having two sources of backup power. However, this proved to be futile as these sources were just as exposed to the water of the tsunami as the primary source. This caused the entire plant to bleed dry of energy slowly as the generators slowly ran out of energy.

Another point that definitely can be improved upon even more is the cooperation with the yakuza groups. Even if these groups are criminals, they see themselves as honourable criminals and operate on a code of honour called the Ninkyodo. This code forces them, more or less, to act justified and honourable. This can be seen in the fact that they offer their support to citizens, without asking anything in return. It would be counterproductive to not operate with such groups even if they are criminal. Human lives should therefore be primary focus, and the morality should count second. 

Conclusion


In conclusion it could be said that, compared to previous crises in Japan, they have definitely made many improvements such as their communication networks and interaction with other international agencies and countries. This can be seen in the cell phone network that alarms people when seismic activity has been detected and an earthquake is credible, and the foreign minister setting up a headquarter to organise the accepting of foreign aid. It can also be seen in the fact that other countries’ help was accepted more often, even coming to the point of accepting U.S. military forces on their soil.

In terms of organisation there is little to be said, as the organisation was quite good. A centralized approach would be more preferable, however it is hard to say what precisely needs to be bettered in light of the different scales of earthquakes. A small earthquake for instance, would be better dealt with by local agencies and governmental organizations, as well as the local populace. This would include things such as clean-up and shelter construction.

However a large scale earthquake like the 2011 earthquake that is being discussed here would be better dealt with by a large centralized body with a large amount of almost infinite power. The ability to use resources such as the military, foreign aid, international contacts and the capability to take control of a situation is preferable in these cases.

In terms of cooperation, there is also little to be said. The cooperation was relatively good between all parties minus the Yakuza, even if they are a very influential organization. This is also definitely an improvement point that should and could be easily made.

Improvements to be made


There is definite room for improvement when it comes to dealing with these crises for Japan. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, they have increased the regulations and standards that fall upon nuclear facilities. (Okada Norio, 2011) (Matanle, 2011) However it should be noted that while regulations have increased, foreign companies such as Tepco have been given leeway in the past. For instance, Tepco had removed a natural seawall that according to some could have stopped the tsunami from reaching the power plant. (Chester Dawson, 2011) This could have prevented most of the crisis, and taken a single large factor out of the equation almost immediately.

Therefore it is advised that the Japanese government doesn’t necessarily focus on the regulations as much but rather on the implementation and controlling of realistic sea walls and other countermeasures.

However on the other hand there are those that say that sea walls and other countermeasures are not effective at all. The water supposedly will wash over the walls regardless, though that is what they are meant to do. However unaccounted for is the fact that the water can splash into the building and flood lower levels of it, killing the energy that powers the facility. (Onishi, 2011) As such, perhaps the sea walls are not as effective as they should be, or perhaps a countermeasure should be thought of to further defend against the water spilling into the facilities.

Another possible place to innovate and create new opportunities for a network against crises like these is the work that the Yakuza does. Despite their immoral and questionable ethics, they are an organization that has helped the people stricken by crises before and continued to do so during the 2011 earthquakes. (Adelstein, Yakuza to the Rescue, 2011)

Their access to resources that remain otherwise inaccessible by the government. Furthermore it is a way to close ties and perhaps organise a better infrastructure to not only deal with the crises but also deal with criminal organisations and make them morally better.

Lastly the capability of the yakuza should not be underestimated, and should be used in these situations to gain access to people that are closer to the streets, ‘the boots on the ground’ so to speak and who know their way around towns and cities, and who know how to speak with people that have lost everything and are down on their luck. If handled correctly the Yakuza could become a valuable asset in the logistical components of the Japanese government, and also perhaps be tamed to be used in other crises as well.

Appendix




Bibliograph

Adelstein, J. (2011, April 9). Retrieved from Independent: independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mobs..
Adelstein, J. (2011, March 18). Yakuza to the Rescue. Retrieved from nicoletakeda: nicoletakeda.com/uploads/4/2/8/5/42853..
CBS news. (2011, March 14). New USGS number puts Japan quake at 4th largest. CBSNews.
Chester Dawson, Y. H. (2011, July 12). Fateful Move Exposed Japan Plant. Retrieved from Wallstreet Journal: wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702..
Dörrbecker, M. (n.d.). Wikimedia Commons.
Japan Meteorological Agency. (2011, Maart 11). Japan Meteorological Agency. Retrieved from Japan Meteorological Agency: jma.go.jp/jp/tsunami/observation_04_20..
Jones, T. Y. (2011, March 25). Retrieved from Reuters: reuters.com/article/us-yakuza-idUSTRE7..
Matanle, P. (2011). The Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown . Sheffield. Retrieved from Whiterose Academy.
National Police Agency of Japan. (2016, March 10). npa.go.jp. Retrieved from npa.go.jp: npa.go.jp/archive/keibi/biki/higaijoky..
NHK WORLD. (2011, August 13). March 11th tsunami a record 40.5 metres high. NHK WORLD.
NPR. (2011, March 14). Millions Of Stricken Japanese Lack Water, Food, Heat. NPR.
Okada Norio, T. Y. (2011). The 2011 Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster. Springerlink.com .
Onishi, N. (2011, March 13). Retrieved from New York Times: nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/14se..
U.S. Marine Corps. (2011, March 11). Stripes. Retrieved from Stripes: stripes.com/news/japan-thanks-us-milit..

Donbass, Ukraine – a non-recognized country at war

A short 2016 look at Ukraine. Attempted to be neutral. I personally dislike Ukraine strongly. Let's hope I succeeded.


Executive Summary

The Donbass region is currently still volatile with frequent engagements between the two sides being common place – especially by artillery bombardments and close range mortars, as well as armour being used. The ceasefire is still in place, but both sides indicate that the other side is breaking the ceasefire. Likely this is because of disorganization and lack of discipline among the DPR militia, as well as a result of the Ukrainian agenda.

SITREP Donbass

The Donbass region is currently held by the ‘Donetsk Peoples’ Republic’ or otherwise known as the DPR. The DPR is a self-proclaimed state who claims the Donbass region as their territory, and they control this territory. However, despite being a self-proclaimed state, only 1 state has acknowledged them as such. (Informatsionnoje telegrafnoje agentstvo Rossii, 2014)

This is not special information on its own, however the interest in the recognition lies in the fact that the DPR also is not recognized by the Russian federation, despite the fact that the DPR is supported by Russia with arms and even volunteer soldiers. (KyivPost, 2014)
The fighting in the Donbass region is still ongoing with reports of combat coming in primarily from the DPR. As of the time of writing, attacks occurred as recently as the same day that the report was made. Frequent artillery shelling is common place, as well as small engagements between DPR/mercenary forces and Ukrainian soldiers. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)

Despite the volatile situation in the region, a security report is released regularly by the local news agency. Vice-commander of the DPR People’s Militia Eduard Basurin writes that ‘’the situation remains tense.’’ (Donbass International News Agency, 2016) It should be noted that this commander is a part of the DPR and therefore is presumably not entirely reliable when it comes to discovering the facts of these engagements.

Furthermore the commander also highlights that civilian targets are being targeted by the Ukrainian armoured brigades as well as the ‘’46th special regiment’’ whom engaged in mortar fire against these industrial and civilian targets. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)

From these reports it becomes incredibly clear that the DPR is engaging in propaganda tactics, possibly to bolster the morale of DPR militia forces, or to damage the morale of Ukrainian troops. A third possibility is that they wish to alert the international community to the transgressions being made in the Donbass area, but this seems unlikely due to the small scope and reach of the source agency.

Other sources indicate that the claim that Ukraine is engaging with the DPR are true – in fact Ukrainian sources also indicate that they are preparing to engage with the DPR. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) Although they do not directly indicate that the ceasefire is being broken, it seems likely that this is also true since the Ukrainian sources also indicate that the DPR militias have been firing upon Ukrainian soldier, claiming the life of a single Ukrainian soldier. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016)

Overall, it could be said that despite the ceasefire, the situation is incredibly tense and diplomatic operations or NGO activity is ill-advised.

Analysis


As of now, the situation in the Donbass remains uncertain except for the fact that there is combat occurring in these regions. From the reports from both sides it seems clear that neither of the two sides is willing to work towards peace in a diplomatic manner despite the fact that the two reached an agreement for a ceasefire earlier. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016; Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) As a result this is specifically of interest for the United Nations. Ukraine especially is in the limelight of the European Union and that means that by extent it would be in the interest of the UN.

Due to the presence of a ceasefire agreement, the UN might be inclined to send observers, launch investigations to war-crime claims from both sides, as well as possibly send a peacekeeping force to maintain the ceasefire until a diplomatic agreement could be reached.
Another factor is the involvement of Russian forces within Ukraine. Although their involvement has been long suspected, it is strange when you consider that Russia has not formally recognized the DPR. However, through aiding the DPR in their fight against Ukraine, it could be said that they have informally recognized this country. However on the other hand, the person that organizes these volunteers also said that the state does not officially sponsor these actions and as a result, there is a plausible deniability for Russia if they were to be confronted about the mercenaries. (KyivPost, 2014) Never the less a case could be made to press the Russian Federation to stop these mercenary activities.

In Kazakhstan the situation was similar, with volunteer troops moving across the borders to fight in another war in return for payment, where these mercenaries are now being prosecuted. The same could happen in Russia.

Thusly, when looking at the short-term goals for both the DPR as well as Ukraine, it seems incredibly clear so far what their goals are. The DPR seems unwilling to cooperate with Ukraine under the pretence that Russia will support them. While keeping up appearances by releasing biased military reports, they are continuing to fight against the Ukrainian forces. (Donbass International News Agency, 2016)
Similarly, the Ukrainian government also seems unwilling to accept the DPR as an independent state and instead labelled them as terrorists as well as establishing an ‘’Anti-Terror Operations’’ (ATO) zone. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016) Their reasoning’s are unknown as Ukraine has kept relatively quiet about their activity in the Donbass region, merely stating that they are ‘’fighting terrorists’’.

Another main player that keeps themselves in the background is the Russian Federation. Similarly, not much is known about the goals of the Russian Federation. However it could be expected that they are supporting the DPR in order to weaken Ukrainian forces.

Future predictions

For future predictions it is important to keep Russia in mind. The DPR’s military consists solely of militiamen and mercenaries, and therefore they should not be expected to hold out against the battle-hardened soldiers of Ukraine that fought in the civil war. (Business Ukraine, 2015)

Therefore the future predictions are likely that the DPR will fall inevitably. This can already be seen in the fact that Ukraine is overstepping the ceasefire and encroaching on DPR positions. With superior weaponry, artillery and tanks, as well as better trained infantry, the DPR seems to stand almost no chance and DPR survival would be considered a miracle.

However, the same was said of Ukraine, and therefore it would be worthwhile to consider the DPR’s survival as a second backup plan in case it does manage to survive the Ukrainian attacks.

In the case that the DPR falls under the Ukrainian forces, it is possible that the Russian Federation will act the same way towards the Donbass region as they did to the Crimean peninsula. They could mount an offensive under the pretence of protecting Russian citizens, and fight back the Ukrainians, after which a referendum would be held again.

If the DPR does not fall it seems reasonable to expect that the DPR turns into a pro-Russian state that will rely heavily on Russia for input on its foreign affairs, military capability, economic sustenance and other important factors in a government’s livelihood. This has already been expressed through the armament of the DPR militia as well as present Russian mercenaries. (KyivPost, 2014)
For Ukraine, the actions seem relatively easy to predict in comparison as there are many indicating factors already in play. The key assumption here is that Ukraine will continue the course it has set for itself in reclaiming the Donbass region. (Southfront Analysis Intelligence, 2016)

Following these actions, Ukrainian forces are expected to retake the Donbass relatively quickly after the insertion of their forces is complete. The fighting is expected to be brief and volatile, with the DPR forces being expected to rout relatively soon due to their inexperience in combat.

Dependant on whether the Russian Federation acts on this offensive, it remains to be seen if Ukraine will defend the Donbass or retreat. In the case that the Russian Federation does not act, it is likely that peace will return to the area and at that point it would be possible for the UN to launch an investigation into the war crimes committed by the two sides.

If the Russian Federation follows through with the predictions made in this report, it seems that Ukraine will have to defend the Donbass against the Russian troops. Due to superior manpower and troop training, it seems likely that these engagements will follow the same route as the ones in the Crimean peninsula – Russian forces will fight those of the Ukrainian military forces, engaging in ‘’tug of war’’ for a while before they push back the Ukrainians.

Bibliography
Business Ukraine. (2015, October 1). DEFENDING EUROPE: Time to acknowledge decisive role of Ukraine’s military miracle. Retrieved from Business Ukraine: bunews.com.ua/opinion/item/defending-e..
Donbass International News Agency. (2016, October 4). DNI News. Retrieved from Ukrainian military shell industrial zone territory near Yasinovataya: dninews.com/article/ukrainian-military..
Donbass International News Agency. (2016, October 4). Donetsk Defense: Situation Report, 04.10.16. Retrieved from DNI News: dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-si..
Informatsionnoje telegrafnoje agentstvo Rossii. (2014, June 27). South Ossetia recognizes independence of Donetsk People’s Republic. Retrieved from TASS Russian News Agency: tass.ru/en/world/738110
KyivPost. (2014, December 26). Head of Sverdlovsk special forces veterans union: ‘I help to send volunteers to war in Ukraine’. Retrieved from KyivPost: web.archive.org/web/20141226123158/htt..
Southfront Analysis Intelligence. (2016, November 29). Military Situation Remains Tense in Donbass Region. Retrieved from South Front: southfront.org/military-situation-rema..
Southfront Analysis Intelligence. (2016, September 30). Ukrainian Armed Forces Send Women to Contact Line in Donbass Instead of ATO Fugitive Fighters. Retrieved from South Front: southfront.org/ukrainian-armed-forces-..


@Volenvradica I rate it 10/10 so far, but I'm severely disappointed you only gave us a peek at your socks. I know imagination is half the appeal, but come on, amateur.

i'm just very upset with @Wade Wilson's lack of gaming skill
@Nanjue ah hell, ye i can relate to the 'having straight hair' thing but i'm a dude so my hair is typically short/mid length so it just ends up springing all over. it's a mess

your hair looks good af tho, whatever you're doing, keep doing it
This is more or less a direct copy from my actual word-document that I wrote. Please don't expect massive amounts of information (I had a word limit of 4000 ) or a lot of coding and nice layouts.



Introductory chapter


The Yakuza, sometimes called bōryokudan, which translates as ‘violent group(s)’, and who refer to themselves as ninkyō dantai, which translates as ‘honourable organization’, have been around for a long time. Although the exact origins of the Yakuza remain shrouded in mystery, most scholars that engage in the research on these groups have concluded that they (the Yakuza) have been around since the early history of Japan, albeit under different names and performing different (illegal) professions.

For example, some have argued that the Yakuza originated from the bakuto, the illegal gamblers, and the tekiya, the street peddlers. (Kaplan, 2012) The theory that the Yakuza originate from the bakuto is given more merit by the meaning of the individual words that make up Yakuza – Ya (eight) Ku (nine) Za (three). These cards together made up the ‘worst hand’ you could be dealt in the Japanese card game that was popular at the time of the bakuto.

The meaning of this is unclear, even to modern-day yakuza, and it is theorized that this means that the Yakuza see their lives as delinquent to be ‘the worst hand’ they could get dealt. After all, honour and respect are still ever present in Japanese society, and a life of crime and delinquency is hardly honourable or respect worthy. As such it is possible that the Yakuza are self-aware of their bad lifestyle. Another theory is that the Yakuza named themselves after this ‘bad hand’ to spell out what would happen to those that opposed them – they would be dealt a bad hand.

Ultimately, the Japanese Yakuza are subject to a lot of glamorization in popular media. There are many forms of media that have used them. These forms of media even date back to the Edo-era of Japan, where plays were performed featuring rogues and characters that were the Japanese equivalent of ‘Robin Hood,’ which many Yakuza claim to be ‘their own.’ Furthermore, modern-day movies have also featured them. For example, they were featured in a western movie like Kill Bill, and popularized and glamorized in there. Another example would be the Japanese movies ‘Crows Zero’ where in the protagonist is the son of a Yakuza gang, but is also helped by a captain of a rival Yakuza gang. In this movie the few Yakuza we see are portrayed in a way that Japan likes to see them – hardened criminals who live a luxurious life over the backs of others.

In each of these movies it is very clear that there are conflicting ideas about the Yakuza when it comes to the real world and the world that media has popularized. Although Kill Bill would have you believe that the Yakuza are some form of ancient warrior criminal group who use swords, this is quite far from the truth. And in comparison to Japanese media, the Yakuza are more often than not simple business men.

Not all popular ideas about Yakuza are false, however. They are world-famous for their body covering tattoo’s, and the stories about fingers being cut off for minor transgressions are certainly true. However, what we often forget is the meaning behind these actions. For example, the tattoos are not purely aesthetical. They hold meaning, and often a tattoo artist would spend hours trying to figure out a Yakuza members personality in order to find out what tattoo would fit him best.

As far as the cutting off of fingers (usually the pinkie) goes, this action also had a meaningful purpose. It’s an old tradition when a Yakuza member breaks the rules of the Yakuza that a section of the finger is cut off. This act of punishment and/or apology is called yubitsume, which translates as finger shortening. This was done to make it harder for this Yakuza member to wield a sword or knife, and has continued into modern times as pistols and other weaponry are hard to come by in Japan (and much of Asia). (Kaplan, 2012) Never the less, popular ideas about the Yakuza fail to account for these, most likely due to the distance we have to this group of criminals. Therefore, it is a highly interesting group to research, especially considering that they are so different from other criminal organizations and will require a unique policy implementation to combat them.


Comparison to other organizations


Although the Yakuza is very much an outlier in terms of criminality when it comes to organizations, there are certainly traits in the Yakuza that can be found in most other criminal organizations.

As a starting grounds, it is wise to look at the make-up of these groups. Who specifically joins criminal organizations as a full member? Most often you will find that these are the poor of society – people with little money and status – and this holds true for most criminal organizations. There are numerous explanations for this trend. For example, if we follow the teachings of the anomie/strain theories, it would be fairly easy to explain why specifically these people utilise criminal organizations. The poor of society would feel like they cannot obtain their goals (status, money, material wealth) through financial means, which holds true for most societies and the respective criminal organizations operating within these societies. After all, is a criminal organization not the epitome of illegal criminal activities in a near-corporate form? (Agnew, 1992)

Another way to possibly explain this behaviour is through rational choice theory, although this is slightly harder. In his book ‘The Reasoning Criminal’ Derek B. Cornish highlights a flowchart in which he describes the influencing factors for an actors’ rational choices – these include for example ‘generalized needs’ and ‘solutions evaluated.’ Following this chart there are numerous factors that are also present in the organized criminal world – money, sex, friendship, status and excitement in the generalized needs department, the likelihood of getting caught in the solutions evaluated department. So, for one actor, it might be decidedly better to join a criminal organization. (Derek B. Cornish, 2014)

However, this does not explain why poor people would be more likely to join criminal organizations. To answer this, one has to look at the relative gains for a poor person as opposed to those of a wealthier individual. A poor person would have a much easier time in organized crime, as opposed to operating on his own. First of all, social needs would be fulfilled within the organization, as opposed to a person of average or above average income. One can assume that these people would already have social ties at work and at home, where as for poor people this is statistically less likely. Furthermore, the risks for a poor individual would be much less high in an organization and the gains would be much higher than if he were to act on his own. This would explain why poor people make up the bulk of criminal organizations as ‘soldiers’ or ‘grunts’ that do the main work of the groups. This is the case for the Yakuza as well as other organizations.


Another similarity is the structural make-up of the organization. This structure is very similar to the Italian mafia, who use a very structural hierarchy with a clear leader, underbosses, captains and soldiers. This is no different for the Yakuza, who utilize a system that is very similar. As can be seen in figure one, the structure is quite simple, and utilises different positions for various jobs, such as legal advisors and soldiers.



When compared to figure 2, which highlights the Italian mafia hierarchy, it becomes quite clear that the Yakuza operates in a similar fashion to the mafia. There is a similar structure, with legal advisors (consiglieri, shingiin) and underbosses (underboss, wakagashira/shateigashira) as well as a similar division of ‘workforce’ in the forms of a capo and his soldiers, and the kyodai and their shatei.

By comparing these organizations, it becomes quite clear why the Yakuza are considered to be an organization as opposed to a gang – they are very organized, have a clear leadership, a hierarchy, and in almost every way operate like other criminal organizations.

Differences between the Yakuza and other criminal organizations


Although the Yakuza are very similar to other criminal organizations, there are still large differences. The Yakuza finds their roots in similar situations and contexts as other organizations. They were originally made to protect the people in their neighbourhood/group. Much like the mafia was made to act as a local vigilante law-bringing organization, the yakuza has acted much in the same way. This is why they still refer to themselves as ninkyō dantai (honourable organization). However unlike other criminal organizations, they have partially stayed true to these roots and in fact do perform deeds that could generally be considered ‘good.’

For example, during the 2012 Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown of the Fukushima plant, they were heavily involved in rescue operations and delivered food and supplies to the zones affected by the tsunami. Although their motives were questioned, as some considered this to be a public relations stunt by the Yakuza, it was generally seen as a good thing that the Yakuza intervened to offer help. In fact, they arrived before officials did. Although it was likely that they in part utilised this as a situation to earn good-will from the civilians, it cannot be denied that this act in and of itself was a good act. (Adelstein, Yakuza to the Rescue, 2011)

Furthermore, another key difference is the ability to identify the members of the Yakuza. While other people involved in criminal organizations wish to hide their affiliation with these groups, in the Yakuza this is quite different. Although you will be hard pressed to find anyone that openly identifies as a Yakuza member, it is generally considered common knowledge who is in charge of what Yakuza clan. Furthermore, the presence of tattoo’s is quite scarce in Japan and most people consider tattoo’s to be marks of delinquency. As such, bearing a tattoo could be an indicator of affiliation with the Yakuza, especially if they are done in the specific Yakuza style. (Japan Daily Press, 2012)

Another difference is the ‘legal’ aspect of the Yakuza. Much like other criminal organizations it is undoubtedly true that there are large amounts of money and power involved in the day-to-day business of the organization, but unlike the other criminal organizations this power is very visible and manifests very clearly in everyday life for Japan. This holds especially true for the corporate and political world of Japan. (Fisher, 2012) One might think that the very essence of being a criminal organization ensures that nobody – corporate or politically affiliated – would cooperate with them, but the opposite has held true in many cases. In fact, contrary to popular belief, the government actually acknowledges them and regulates (some) them. In turn this legalizes the Yakuza, and in fact, being a part of a Yakuza group is not always illegal in Japan.

This has happened in return for the financial and physical favours they have done for the political elite. Although one could describe this as corruption, the shape it takes resembles something more closely related to the acknowledgement of the good within the bad. The reason for my saying this is that there have been a lot of crackdowns on the criminal elements of the Yakuza both from the police and their leadership as well as the political elite despite the fact that they have received favours in the past. (Fisher, 2012) Until 1992 however, the Yakuza enjoyed a more or less free playing field for them to muddle around in, and it wasn’t until 1992 that the political elite begun fighting back. And even then, it is hard to say that the political elite has actually reached any goals. In fact, the crackdowns that have thus far occurred forced the Yakuza to reorganize into more efficient leadership methods as well as financial schemes, which in turn has made them more profitable. (Kaplan, 2012)

Policy implications of the Yakuza influence


Thus far, the Yakuza has had a lot of influence in the political world of Japan. It seems that the current outlook is that this is unlikely to change soon, due to heavily ingrained influence, large amounts of legal assets (financial, influence on people, capability to muster support for a cause) as well as the ability to utilize assets/influence for the public good (for example the 2012 disaster relief). These factors all have caused the Yakuza to become heavily involved not only in the countries politics but also their economy.

Due to their political involvement with the ‘Liberal Democratic Party’ of Japan, many Yakuza clans are directly involved with numerous political characters, and have been involved with the allocation of official government titles to people from this party. (Independent, 1993) This influence is to be blamed for most of the lenient policies that the Yakuza have faced in the past. For example, it is not illegal to be part of a Yakuza clan in Japan, and for a long time it was also legal to do business with Yakuza clans, despite their criminal nature. This has changed now, but for the longest time the Yakuza had more or less obtained a free reign when it came to their power.

Through their massive influence over the Japanese political situation, they have been able to ensure that, for instance, they would not get wiretapped and would not be interfered with in their money-making schemes. (Fisher, 2012)

Another implication thus far has been the acceptance of the National Police Agency (NPA) that they would be unable to get rid of criminal elements and activities within society altogether. This context is perhaps best comparable to the Dutch acknowledgement of drugs as an illegal substance and the Dutch governmental choice on how to deal with users – the acceptance of the inability to deal with users, and instead opting for a campaign of regulation and education on the effects of drugs. For the Yakuza, this approach has meant that thus far the police have maintained a policy of acceptance. For example, the gambling and prostitution industry have thus far historically been the area of operations for the Yakuza. Both gambling and prostitution are illegal in Japan, but it seems unlikely that the Japanese police would be able to deal with the problem. Therefore, they have opted to let the Yakuza conduct their operations ‘’out of sight’’ to ensure that the gambling and prostitution dens would at least be controlled by a figure of authority who they could count on to keep the peace. (Independent, 1993)

To add onto this, Japan has always had a very heavy anti-drug stance and will most likely continue to hold on to these values. Never the less, the NPA or perhaps more obviously, the police officers of Japan, have always more or less accepted the drug trade the Yakuza were involved in. This came from the mutual understanding that while the drugs the Yakuza dealt in (soft drugs) were harmful, harder drug types would be even more harmful, both to the people that took them and the general public, and the Yakuza would therefore ensure these were kept off the streets – and hopefully out of Japan altogether. From this is visible that, once again, while the Yakuza engage in criminal activities, they consider themselves to be an ‘honourable organization’ and they try to uphold themselves to that standard.

As the Yakuza are notoriously right wing, it is also probable that they have helped in shaping laws and regulations of the country. Although Japan is seen as a liberal left wing country in modern times (depending on what part of their policy/law-making you are looking at), this wasn’t always the case. Following the Yakuza and their influence on the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan underwent heavy right wing decision-making that shaped the laws of Japan, and as it is not improbable to estimate that current immigration policies as well as other policies are a result of this influence.

Policy implementations to combat the Yakuza


Due to the pre-existing power of the Yakuza groups, both economically as they have managed to white-wash their money through legal enterprises being constructed, as well as politically through the earning of favours from high-ranking government officials, it will be very hard to properly ‘combat’ the Yakuza. And in addition to their established power, the police also acknowledge that if they were to fully get rid of the Yakuza, these groups would be replaced with less organized and ‘chivalrous’ groups which would lead to even more apparent criminality and problem. (Fisher, 2012, Kaplan, 2012)

Although there are some critics of the approach, reintegrative shaming plays a large part in dealing with criminality in Japan – in fact, in some studies it is attributed as the number 1 approach for Japanese approaches to crime. This is especially interesting, considering that Japan has one of the lowest crime rates in the world. (Kersten, 1993)

But for the Yakuza this lays differently. They are easily spotted, as compared to ‘regular’ criminals. Due to Japan’s attitude to, for instance, tatttoo’s, it would be very hard to reintegrate these people. After all, whe you get banned from spa’s due to having tattoo’s, how could one expect to get a legal job when you have tattoo’s? (Japan Daily Press, 2012) Furthermore, we should also consider that there is a ‘price’ to be paid for leaving a Yakuza group. If someone wishes to leave the group and cease associating with them, the Yakuza will most likely demand a price to be paid in the form of a finger being lost, or depending on the offenses, death. So when we approach the Yakuza problem with the approach of reintegrating them, it seems that this will be close to impossible.

Another problem with the reintegrative shaming approach is that in Japanese culture, the Yakuza are seen as ‘a fact of life’ (Fisher, 2012) and it is believed that they serve a purpose in Japanese society. This represents something akin to ‘providing balance in the evil’ or ‘organized criminality’ that prevents criminals from growing too chaotic, evil and twisted. Although it would be hard to prove this is the case, the culture seems to imply that it is. As a result, reintegrative shaming will most likely not have a large effect, since the Yakuza believe that their position is one of necessary evil.

Another potential problem with policy implementations to combat the Yakuza is the fact that Yakuza are theoretically not an illegal organization in and of itself. Although the police would argue otherwise, it is not precisely clear whether or not Yakuza activities are attributed to the Yakuza group itself or the individuals conducting them (in name of the group). Therefore, is it possible that the reintegrative shaming method that is proclaimed to be ‘highly effective’ due to low crime rates really as effective, if the lack of documentation of illegal activities conducted by the Yakuza groups means that the low crime-rate is artificial? After all, if we documented the activities conducted by the groups properly, wouldn’t the crime-rate rise higher?

So if the primary solution applied to criminals proves to be ineffective to the Yakuza, what would work? The answer is complex and is almost certainly the case that there is no universal answer. After all, the Yakuza groups are very different and all of them seem to have their own organizational personality. (Kaplan, 2012) Where as some organizations are ultra-violent and involved in violent crimes, other Yakuza organizations have since the re-organizations shifted their activities almost entirely to the legal side of the spectrum, only engaging in ‘grey area’ crimes from time to time. So almost naturally, the approach to this type of powerful economical Yakuza group would differ strongly from the ultra-violent Yakuza groups.

And even if there were actions to be taken, would this be the right move? Although combatting their highly illegal and harmful activities (violence, drug trade, human trafficking) is most certainly a requirement, nationally by the National Police Association, and internationally by the international community at large, it would be naïve to assume that there are no benefits to the Japanese government as well as the Japanese society as a whole that come from these Yakuza organizations. Who else will provide a measure of organization and order in otherwise chaotic businesses like prostitution and drug trade? Would these issues not grow even larger with the absence of Yakuza groups? The NPA seems to think so, and history agrees as well.

As evidence has shown us, the Yakuza largely legalized their operations during the period after world war 2 – when Japan was going through a large scale industrialization and economics were looking up. Perhaps one solution would be to ensure economic viability in Japan – lately their economy has stagnated and while they are not going through a recession in the same capacity as the western world, their economy isn’t growing at a large rate either. In order to facilitate the legalization of their activities, one idea would be to ensure a prosperous economy. This is naturally within the interest of the entire country, however, and therefore it would be hard to sell this as an ‘anti-Yakuza policy.’

Measures that can be taken to combat Yakuza activity in general is, first of all, to actually make Yakuza organizations illegal. As of yet, most Yakuza members are not considered to be criminals purely by association (although, it is in fact illegal to deal with and facilitate illegal operations conducted by Yakuza groups) and in fact, they openly use the name of their respective Yakuza group to gain (negative) respect in the form of fear. (Fisher, 2012) If Japan were to make Yakuza groups as a whole into an illegal organization, these organizations will be forced to change their modus operandi, and will be forced to either adapt a new identity (through which the Japanese government/police could force them to conduct legal operations) or otherwise force them to adopt a construction similar to the Italian mafia. This would mean that they would no longer be able to use their identity as a Yakuza group to force people to do their will – and thus would harm their business initially while they adapt. During this period it would be possible to arrest and trial these members.

There is a glaring problem with this policy, and any other policy that could be created. The Yakuza’s large influence on the politics of the country and their financial capabilities (that open up a world of lobbying that is unpresedented in other criminal organizations) mean that they are more than likely completely capable of blocking any type of policy that would severely harm their livelihood.

But perhaps the most interesting policy solution would be to cooperate with the Yakuza groups – although they clearly engage in illegal operations, it is also not the case that they never perform worthwhile deeds. Although they are a criminal organization in essence, it might be worthwhile to cooperate with them and enforce positive deeds while limiting negative deeds. For instance, a possible method of cooperation (not unlike western methods) would be the legalization of prostitution and soft drugs. The chances of this ever happening are slim due to Japanese culture, but if we disregard that, this has the promise of a worthwhile policy implementation.
One prerequisite of this policy however would be the inclusion of influential Yakuza groups in the discussion to shape this policy. After all, it would not create a positive environment if the Japanese government would disregard the already existing drug and prostitution systems, and would disregard the parties involved in these systems. Simply a legalization of the existing systems with regulations and official bodies would most likely help combat the illegal activities of the groups while also enforcing positive regulations and laws to ensure that working conditions are better than they were before, and above all, that they are safer. This would help ensure safety for all parties involved, limit criminality (because the acts are no longer criminal, as well as being able to regulate those that work outside of the legal system better and deal with them) and appease the Yakuza groups in a way that doesn’t force them to use their power negatively.

All-in-all however, it appears as if there is no solvable solution to the Yakuza-problem. Their power has been allowed to grow too strong and any policy implementation that is direct will likely be countered more or less directly by their influence and economical power to lobby. Perhaps the best solution is to simply accept their presence as the Japanese government has done so far, and only interfere when the public safety or lives of civilians are endangered or at stake. So far this has seemed to work somewhat, although it is a problem that this policy would allow the Yakuza’s power to grow even larger.

Bibliography
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