@BrokenPromiseDon't get me wrong; I understood the reasoning with the calculations you were giving -- more just making the observation that this isn't the first time math got brought to the table in this thread.
On another note, since it's actually very common - if the last few games are anything to go off - for the murderer to not place the first vote in most rounds, the third round usually gets determined exclusively by the decision of the first person who places a vote in that round. If the person voting isn't the murderer and they vote for someone besides the murderer, the murderer automatically wins because it's impossible for them to lose at that point since they can't vote for themselves (and if everyone gets one vote then the murderer kills two people -- it's in the rules). So that first person voting has a 50% chance of getting it right, and a lot of times their vote
will end the game.
If the first person votes for the murderer, it usually ends because if I'm not automatically confirming the game is over then it implies the person who got voted for is the murderer. This is one reason why I've been thinking about making voting obligatory even if the outcome is already decided. Thankfully, this (murderer getting voted for in the third round -- apparently that 50% odd has always rounded down for people so far) hasn't actually happened yet so it's not a problem.