Russia in Crimea

[Omega]

So this is something I have been hearing rumors about for a little while now. All kinds of little things I figured were the usual rumor mongering even when I heard about Russian units near the border having gear shipped to an unknown location, started training for extensive urban warfare, and other little things that set off red flags. Rumor mongering though is stock and trade in some places though so kind of passed it over.

Until now that is as reports flood in of Russian military forces moving into Crimea. Very little is yet available on the situation with everyone playing the political game but things could change dramatically very soon.

[Omega]

Thus far the Crimean people seem to be backing Russia overall.

So far Crimean airports have been taken by armed men, the Crimean government has been taken by armed men, and Crimean ports are blockaded by Russian ships.

There are various sightings of Russian APCs and helicopters as well.

[nautilusmp]

So, is Moscow still thinking that it's the capital of USSR?

[HeySeuss]

South Ossetia redux.

But this time with a suspiciously well-armed militia paving the way in.

[The Nexerus]

Abkahazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea...

[Ruby]

We're all now in Putin's little OODA loop.

Boos. =/

[Vordak]

-

[Vordak]

Nothing to make a fuss about yet. IMHO, as for now, the chance that something really serious might happen isn't that high.

[Omega]

Vordak said
Nothing to make a fuss about yet. IMHO, as for now, the chance that something really serious might happen isn't that high.

Military blockade, seized airports, government building seized, Russian upper house has authorized Putin to utilize military action in Ukraine (not simply Crimea but all of Ukraine) to safeguard Russian interests.

[HeySeuss]

Maybe they wanted to grab Ukraine's gold medalist in the biathlon...

[mdk]

Two years ago we were laughing about this.

[The Nexerus]

As F. L. Lucas put it...

"Many honest folk feel it hard to deny the Russian Ukrainians self-determination, if they want to belong to the Russian Federation. But then, can we deny it to the Ukrainian areas among the Russians? Then what about Russian pockets in the Ukrainian areas? Self-determination must stop somewhere. In politics, as in physics, you come to a point where you cannot go on splitting things. You cannot have self-determination by villages. You may split the Ukraine now. In a few years it will be one again. Only it will be Russian. That is all."

[Captain Jordan]

What terrifies me is how little is going to be done about this.

The US won't intervene. The US and Russia have never ever engaged in a hot war. We'd be fools to start now, the result would surely be World War 3.

Europe won't intervene. Russia could do far more damage to them in terms of political and economic pressures. Militarily, most everything pales in comparison to countries with a nuclear arsenal.

The UN won't intervene. Even if Russia follows the rules of the Security Council and abstains from such a vote, China would certainly veto it. I wouldn't be surprised if France did as well. If, and it's a huge if, the resolution ever made it to the UN floor, I fear it would be paralyzed by UN inaction once more. Sadly, the UN is just plain ineffective in preventing big conflicts like this, especially when it involves one of the superpowers. I can't imagine the UN voting to act against one of its most influential members, to do so would likely tear apart the facade that holds that organization together.

So Russia will retake Crimea, or swallow Ukraine whole. I think the former is more likely than the latter, Russia is probably only interested in the warm sea port and the Russian inhabitants of that peninsula than the whole of Ukraine. It wouldn't surprise me if they installed their own puppet government again, or helped the campaign of a pro-Russia supporter get into office in the next elections, if only to placate Europe and the world and assure them that Russia doesn't want World Domination.

Just Crimea. Russia has always wanted Crimea.

[mdk]

Captain Jordan said
What terrifies me is how little is going to be done about this. The US won't intervene. The US and Russia have engaged in a hot war. We'd be fools to start now, the result would surely be World War 3. Europe won't intervene. Russia could do far more damage to them in terms of political and economic pressures. Militarily, most everything pales in comparison to countries with a nuclear arsenal. The UN won't intervene. Even if Russia follows the rules of the Security Council and abstains from such a vote, China would certainly veto it. I wouldn't be surprised if France did as well. If, and it's a huge if, the resolution ever made it to the UN floor, I fear it would be paralyzed by UN inaction once more. Sadly, the UN is just plain ineffective in preventing big conflicts like this, especially when it involves one of the superpowers. I can't imagine the UN voting to act against one of its most influential members, to do so would likely tear apart the facade that holds that organization together. So Russia will retake Crimea, or swallow Ukraine whole. I think the former is more likely than the latter, Russia is probably only interested in the warm sea port and the Russian inhabitants of that peninsula than the whole of Ukraine. It wouldn't surprise me if they installed their own puppet government again, or helped the campaign of a pro-Russia supporter get into office in the next elections, if only to placate Europe and the world and assure them that Russia doesn't want World Domination. Just Crimea. Russia has always wanted Crimea.

I imagine the Russians thought something similar about the USA into the middle east.

The rules, objectively, are different for those with the power to do as they wish. There's no foreseeable iteration of the UN or any similar body that can change that. The weak will be subjected to the strong; so the three options are, cultivate strength in the weak; cultivate weakness in the strong; or do nothing. The third choice usually wins.

[Omega]

Ukraine has mobilized it's armed forces and is bringing equipment out of storage. Crimea has fallen to Russia with only a few military holdouts left and the head of the Ukrainian Navy is being charged as a traitor by the new government for surrendering to the Russians.

Protests are now spreading throughout Eastern Ukraine as pro-Russian sentiment grows. Many people view the new government as one of extremists propped up by NATO.

[HeySeuss]

Some of the better coverage on this is coming out of the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which has a very different stake in this situation, as well as better sources than most media outlets.

tl;dr: The Western Ukrainian government aren't saints either.

[Captain Jordan]

HeySeuss said
Some of the better coverage on this is coming out of the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which has a very different stake in this situation, as well as better sources than most media outlets.tl;dr: The Western Ukrainian government aren't saints either.

That's hardly an excuse. This incursion is no better than if the US were to invade Cuba. Imperialism doesn't benefit the world anymore.

[Omega]

Captain Jordan said
That's hardly an excuse. This incursion is no better than if the US were to invade Cuba. Imperialism doesn't benefit the world anymore.

It is entirely different from the US invading Cuba.

The problem is both sides are pretty much right. The old government was close to a Russian puppet state and the new one is anti-Russian extremists supported by the US and UK. That is why only the US, UK, and France have taken hardlines opposing Russia so far with most countries not responding at all or just marginally condemning military action.

Ukraine has a strong ethnic Russian minority in many eastern regions they will find popular support through all of Southern Ukraine and could take almost everything east of the Dnieper almost with a fight as they have mobilized over 150,000 soldiers to Ukraine's current 145,000 with local support generally going to the Russians until you cross the Dnieper.

[Captain Jordan]

Omega said
Ukraine has a strong ethnic Russian minority in many eastern regions they will find popular support through all of Southern Ukraine and could take almost everything east of the Dnieper almost with a fight as they have mobilized over 150,000 soldiers to Ukraine's current 145,000 with local support generally going to the Russians until you cross the Dnieper.

Which is pretty much due to Soviet forced migrations in order to create just this situation.

[HeySeuss]

A policy of migration that almost none of those people were alive for and none of whom actually had a choice in even if they were alive. Stalin did that and he's long dead. Sticking them with the blame for that isn't doing anyone any good. Anyway, Omega's got the point here on this one.