Frokane's Mildly Politcal Hangout Thread

[POOHEAD189]

@The Harbinger of Ferocity I don't think anyone is arguing that North Korea is a bigger threat than the Soviet Union. People are arguing that Kim Jong Un is less stable of a ruler than most Sovier Rulers, and is far more likely to do something drastic.

[The Harbinger of Ferocity]

@POOHEAD189

Yes, this I am aware of, but my point is that even if he attempted to act, his actions are unlikely to be as drastic as people are making them out to be. The level of "drastic" he is capable of is measurably less powerful than that of the old superpower or its modern legacy. In addition, the hardline stances like those of the United States, that of which is no longer taking his rhetoric or behavior as acceptable, are likely to change his behavior; the consequences are clear cut.

[POOHEAD189]

@POOHEAD189

Yes, this I am aware of, but my point is that even if he attempted to act, his actions are unlikely to be as drastic as people are making them out to be. The level of "drastic" he is capable of is measurably less powerful than that of the old superpower or its modern legacy. In addition, the hardline stances like those of the United States, that of which is no longer taking his rhetoric or behavior as acceptable, are likely to change his behavior; the consequences are clear cut.

@The Harbinger of Ferocity

Oh I agree. It wouldn't be World War 3 or Nuclear Winter or anything of the sort. Even if he could somehow commit to a nuclear strike on U.S. soil, it would spell the end for North Korea in its entirety.

[Didgeridont]

Any missiles the North Korean's fire on Seoul would likely be intercepted by the THAAD systems that were installed within the country, and Japan has the Aegis BMD system in the event of a ballistic missile attack. Even if the DPRK could succeed in getting their missiles off the ground, they would be quickly shot down. It is also clear that South Korea would be able to defend against an invasion across the border and quickly retaliate and send troops directly towards Pyongyang.

China probably isn't going to help the DPRK, that wouldn't sit well with their interests abroad in terms of U.S. - China relations and trade. North Korea has been backed into a corner and it is likely a much smaller threat than ever as China begins to distance itself from the North Korean government.

[The Harbinger of Ferocity]

@Didgeridont

That is the most likely scenario, that most if not everything we are legitimately concerned with would be intercepted or disabled before it could land on target - assuming it could even do so at all given just how complex the ballistics are, let alone the required nuclear physics. The only way to inflict any real damage would be a massive attack, perhaps in conjunction with it, but there would be no real point to do so because of the retaliation received; the whole northern peninsula becoming one giant swath of angry allied forces and assured global condemnation in its varied forms beyond the usual received.

Nuclear deterrence is alive and well, even today.

[AngelofOctober]

@POOHEAD189

Yes, this I am aware of, but my point is that even if he attempted to act, his actions are unlikely to be as drastic as people are making them out to be. The level of "drastic" he is capable of is measurably less powerful than that of the old superpower or its modern legacy. In addition, the hardline stances like those of the United States, that of which is no longer taking his rhetoric or behavior as acceptable, are likely to change his behavior; the consequences are clear cut.

@The Harbinger of Ferocity

Even if the results aren't that drastic. You still have the potential of the consequences being drastic.

[mdk]

What makes the situation different today is that we only used to get non-credible threats from the DPRK. Suddenly (it only seems sudden, if we're being honest) the threats ARE credible. They're not, you know, catastrophic -- but the capabilities are there. They can kill a lot of people, well in excess of the "big deal" threshold (which is a rather arbitrary and personal line -- frankly killing ONE person is too much in my book). The threat has only grown larger ever since the DMZ went up, and now that the DPRK has its own nuclear deterrent, it's only going to grow faster. KJU needs to be brought to heel.

I don't mind if he stays in power (hell from an economic perspective, I much prefer it that way and you should too). But that nuke capability has got to fuckin' go. If it doesn't, you will see Japan re-militarize, you'll see posturing by the other regional players, and you'll see allegorical gasoline flung onto a whole slew of flashpoints (like Taiwan, the South China Sea, basically every scrap of ocean floor with mining rights attached). A weaponized-nuclear DPRK makes the world quantifiably more miserable, even if they never fire one for realzies. Hopefully our credible threats are registering -- I really don't want to have to topple the Kim dynasty, that would be really really super bad (for everyone NOT starving to death in the DPRK). BUT FOR THE RECORD, if they make us, we'll win very easily.

[Penny]

With the unfortunate knock-on effect of bringing America into the fray. South Korea and Japan being America's allies and all.

@Prawn

Obviously, but my point being that the don't have any desire to launch an attack. North Korea is a satiated power. They just want to have the deterrent and the added benefit of occasionally rattling.

[Penny]

The exact reason such an attack at this stage would be very ineffective.

@The Harbinger of Ferocity

Right and furthermore they have no incentive to ever launch such an attack, they are interested in deterrence. There is no world in which North Korea wins a war once one breaks out.

[Dolerman]

@Penny

No one can humble brag quite like a pizza loving girl on the internet.

Learn from her.

[Andreyich]

@The Harbinger of Ferocity I don't think anyone is arguing that North Korea is a bigger threat than the Soviet Union. People are arguing that Kim Jong Un is less stable of a ruler than most Sovier Rulers, and is far more likely to do something drastic.

@POOHEAD189

He's more or less just as stable as the guy who was the first to spread the red plague, the guy who wanted to make soldiers fuck apes and vice versa to make super soldiers, or (a personal favourite) the guy who smashed his shoe on a table at a conference telling people what would be translated to showing the West "Kuzma's mother" (though the joke/metaphor would be hard to understand without speaking Russian or Ukrainian/Belarusian like Kruschev) and many more shenanigans of Soviet leaders.

[mdk]

<Snipped quote by The Harbinger of Ferocity>

Right and furthermore they have no incentive to ever launch such an attack, they are interested in deterrence. There is no world in which North Korea wins a war once one breaks out.

@Penny

All glory to the great and noble Military Industrial Complex, for keeping us safe

[POOHEAD189]

<Snipped quote by POOHEAD189>

He's more or less just as stable as the guy who was the first to spread the red plague, the guy who wanted to make soldiers fuck apes and vice versa to make super soldiers, or (a personal favourite) the guy who smashed his shoe on a table at a conference telling people what would be translated to showing the West "Kuzma's mother" (though the joke/metaphor would be hard to understand without speaking Russian or Ukrainian/Belarusian like Kruschev) and many more shenanigans of Soviet leaders.

@Andreyich

[Penny]

@Penny

No one can humble brag quite like a pizza loving girl on the internet.

Learn from her.

@Dynamo Frokane

Well I do love pizza but tragically it does go to my hips :(

[POOHEAD189]

I keep having the feeling I should make a workout/weight loss article on the site along with my medieval weapons one...

I'm enjoying some pizza riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight now.

[FreeElk]

I don't mind if he stays in power (hell from an economic perspective, I much prefer it that way and you should too) [...] I really don't want to have to topple the Kim dynasty, that would be really really super bad (for everyone NOT starving to death in the DPRK).

@mdk

I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, just wondering, but why is it better for our economy if North Korea keeps it's current power structure?

[Andreyich]

<Snipped quote by mdk>

I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, just wondering, but why is it better for our economy if North Korea keeps it's current power structure?

@FreeElk

"Big bad guy, we protect, do whatever we like cuz it's emergency"

[Crimson Paladin]

I doubt either side will actually do anything beyond continue to make empty threats. The only difference between then and now is that it's no longer one-sided on North Korea's part.

[Penny]

I doubt either side will actually do anything beyond continue to make empty threats. The only difference between then and now is that it's no longer one-sided on North Korea's part.

@Crimson Paladin

Blowhards of the world unite!

[POOHEAD189]

Trump is going to pull his obamacare reaction to this. When it gets to the point that they'll either need to go to war, or give up, he's going to go "let North Korea fail. It has a horrible economy, and it will die out in a generation."