[OOC] Precipice of War - We Write Under The Sign Of The Goat

[Vilageidiotx]

<Snipped quote by Dinh AaronMk> Considering they've been under Japanese domination for forty-odd years, an entire new generation would have grown up that knows nothing of the pre-Japanese days and frankly probably wouldn't care nearly so much. This new population, containing almost all of the soldier-age population, would be significantly more loyal to the Empire than the older generation that remembers. There's no guarantee they wouldn't have significant enough air assets and potentially aircraft carriers to both fend off any stuff you send off at them but also place pressure on your forces attempting to contain their landings. Naval forces bombarding your coast and air support combined could easily turn your defensive line into as much of a meat grinder as their landing area. A quasi-fascist state would have invested much more of its power into building these assets than an isolationist China, bolstered as it may be by the other bloc members.

@Mihndar

That's not quite how nationalism works, I am afraid. Your argument about populations would be true if this was a thousand years ago, but national identity erases this. Koreans are still Koreans, and they will be very aware of this. You also have to remember that Japan was never a benevolent conqueror, and it is doubtable that they have been kind to even the new generation. And your representation of the way war works is not... actually how war works. To wage an industrial war, you have to have the industry. This was always Japans biggest problem in the early days, and a major factor in the history of their real world Empire. Pearl Harbor was not an attempt to conquer the United States. Not even an attempt to conquer Hawaii. Rather, Pearl Harbor was the desperate attempt by the Japanese to destroy the US Pacific Fleet so that they could bring a quick end to a Pacific War. They did this because the US refused to sell them oil and they needed to take Dutch Indonesia or else risk being unable to fuel their economy. And they used that strategy specifically because they knew that, once the war started, the US industry would destroy theirs. Remember that Japan is a tiny rocky island, that their Empire was what allowed them to industrialize, and that their modern industrialization is related more to their relationship with the US after the war than it is anything innate within their culture. Case in point, when China finally industrialized their economy dwarfed Japans pretty quickly. A Japanese War with China would much like their war with the US in our time. A few quick victories around the coast followed by slow economic collapse as China headbutts them into the ground. ...and also, if NRP's have taught me anything, it is that most people seem to think war is just a bunch of aircraft carriers.

[Meiyuuhi]

<Snipped quote by Mihndar> I'm sure that's what the Turks told themselves again and again during their occupation of Armenian territory. Or even Kurdish. Nationalism isn't that easily breed out over generations. Especially if you're two different peoples. Modern nationalism doesn't just leave the mindset of a people when a generation or two passes in or out of the social framework. If anything, it'd get passed down from one generation to another. Because that's their identity. And identity is important. Tribe is important. And Japan is all about their tribe and the Japanese. Not the Indonesians or the Koreans. It's all for the make benefit of them and the Japanese imperial institution would have been well built for that way of thinking. The Emperor is a God. And the Japanese are the people of that God. Everyone else is not. Besides, the dutch had been fighting Indonesian nationalism for a long time before Japan no doubt seized the islands. Though the Japanese may have used these nationalists to overthrow the Dutch and get themselves in it was never a serious commitment to favor the Indonesians. Any attempts at seizing this or acting out wouldn't be acted to kindly. And then all of a sudden there's a cycle of violence in the region much like Isreal-Palestine. Or modern Xinjiang with one side trying to get a head on the other, and the other being seriously offended and violent. They would not be loyal. Not until they all die. And then there goes the 150 million.

@Dinh AaronMk

No, they of course wouldn't all be loyal. Far be it for me to say that. But if after a year of Nazi occupation many people were already joining the ranks of the collaborators, after forty years the number of people reconciled to the Empire would have continued to rise, even more so if it remained stable unlike the collapsing Ottoman one. Japanese populations could be making inroads into the islands, and people could have been assimilated depending on the country's policies. The reasons for this reconcilement could be many and varied, ranging from simple recognition of the reality of power to a fear of Communism and belief that only a united Japanese Empire can stand against it. The propaganda perpetuated by such a fascist regime would have likely militarized many non-Japanese people against the perceived threat. And it's important to recognize that some countries are like Finland, while other countries are like Kazakhstan. Not every nationality is as rebellious as the next, and Indonesia is hardly homogenous culturally.

<Snipped quote by Mihndar> That's not quite how nationalism works, I am afraid. Your argument about populations would be true if this was a thousand years ago, but national identity erases this. Koreans are still Koreans, and they will be very aware of this. You also have to remember that Japan was never a benevolent conqueror, and it is doubtable that they have been kind to even the new generation. And your representation of the way war works is not... actually how war works. To wage an industrial war, you have to have the industry. This was always Japans biggest problem in the early days, and a major factor in the history of their real world Empire. Pearl Harbor was not an attempt to conquer the United States. Not even an attempt to conquer Hawaii. Rather, Pearl Harbor was the desperate attempt by the Japanese to destroy the US Pacific Fleet so that they could bring a quick end to a Pacific War. They did this because the US refused to sell them oil and they needed to take Dutch Indonesia or else risk being unable to fuel their economy. And they used that strategy specifically because they knew that, once the war started, the US industry would destroy theirs. Remember that Japan is a tiny rocky island, that their Empire was what allowed them to industrialize, and that their modern industrialization is related more to their relationship with the US after the war than it is anything innate within their culture. Case in point, when China finally industrialized their economy dwarfed Japans pretty quickly. A Japanese War with China would much like their war with the US in our time. A few quick victories around the coast followed by slow economic collapse as China headbutts them into the ground. ...and also, if NRP's have taught me anything, it is that most people seem to think war is just a bunch of aircraft carriers.

@Vilageidiotx

I'm hardly an expert, so I'll take your word for it on the war topic. Though I would posit that Japan's economy would still be comparable to China's, considering in the real world it took them until the 2000s to do just what you say, with all of the benefits that affords them. Your comparison would be entirely accurate if China was the United States, but as it would stand in the 1980s China would still have a smaller economy than Japan, unless Aaron has somehow ensured economic growth four or five times larger than that engineered under Maoism.

[Vilageidiotx]

Collaborators were usually minorities, though. Except in France. Then it was half the country. But you're comparing apples to oranges there. There were a lot of Nazi collaborators because Fascism was a really popular idea set. Most of the collaborators were local nationalists who saw the Nazi's as a force that would rebuild their governments rather than replace them. That was the entire point of Vichy France - for the Vichy, it was supposed to eventually be all of France. I don't think Petain and his lot knew what Hitler was actually planning to do. With Asia, you're looking at groups of people who deeply traditional, and already deeply communal. You won't really get them to fear communism (there is a reason Asia was so drawn to it), and they will resent any slight an occupier makes. That leaves Korea out of any polite relationship Indonesia could possibly be made into an equal partner of sorts, but that doesn't mean much in its own. Even if you somehow overcome the hurdles of diverse number of individual cultures, the underdevelopment of their infrastructure, and the rural nature of their local industry, Indonesia still isn't enough to help Japan make a dent in the Chinese monstrosity.

I'm hardly an expert, so I'll take your word for it on the war topic. Though I would posit that Japan's economy would still be comparable to China's, considering in the real world it took them until the 2000s to do just what you say, with all of the benefits that affords them. Your comparison would be entirely accurate if China was the United States, but as it would stand in the 1980s China would still have a smaller economy than Japan, unless Aaron has somehow ensured economic growth four or five times larger than that engineered under Maoism.

Japan's economy is comparable because the US occupation. We funneled assloads of money into their economy, and as a result they were able to jump into the Asian market and completely dominate it for a while. And yes, Precipice China's growth is... peculiar. I'll give you that. I suppose the argument to be made is that Hou's Communism is less heavy handed than Maoism and has made better use of individual talents, since Hou's China always came off as being more of a Single-Party Welfare State rather than a full-blown planned economy. But it doesn't take a US sized economy to swat down a Japan in this situation. Especially since the US was working with handicaps that China doesn't have. Namely, China is right next door so the entire island hopping business wouldn't be necessary.

[Dinh AaronMk]

And it's forty years on with Japan having snuffed out any honest attempts at nationalism and giving Indonesia an aboriginal government. They just replaced one master for another. So the sort of spirit for Japan as Vichy France for Nazi Germany isn't all that there when the promise was shown to be false when the Empire decided that there would be no further mention of "Indonesia" ever.

[Meiyuuhi]

Though I'll concede that the population of people reconciled to the government would be small, I still think that the natural resources afforded by Indonesia and whatever other possessions they might have would bolster Japan's economic growth, and considering Japan had a larger economy than China all the way until the 2000s (and that's even with Deng's reforms, which presumably would not happen in this universe) they would still have an industrial capacity to outproduce them in terms of war assets even if they can't match their army in terms of numbers. And that industrial capacity would be primarily geared towards military production, unlike in modern-day Japan.

[Vilageidiotx]

Though I'll concede that the population of people reconciled to the government would be small, I still think that the natural resources afforded by Indonesia and whatever other possessions they might have would bolster Japan's economic growth, and considering Japan had a larger economy than China all the way until the 2000s (and that's even with Deng's reforms, which presumably would not happen in this universe) they would still have an industrial capacity to outproduce them in terms of war assets even if they can't match their army in terms of numbers. And that industrial capacity would be primarily geared towards military production, unlike in modern-day Japan.

@Mihndar

Like said, Japan had a larger economy because of US intervention. Also, Hou isn't necessarily Mao so Deng's reforms might not have happened simply because they were never necessary.

[Meiyuuhi]

<Snipped quote by Mihndar> Like said, Japan had a larger economy because of US intervention. Also, Hou isn't necessarily Mao so Deng's reforms might not have happened simply because they were never necessary.

@Vilageidiotx

But they also wouldn't have been devastated during World War 2, so to some degree those would have canceled out. And it seems a bit dubious to me that China could have industrialized several times faster in order to match.

[Pepperm1nts]

I think you're all forgetting a very important point about Japan here, that I feel would tip the scale in the event of war with China.

Hider

Godzilla.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Though I'll concede that the population of people reconciled to the government would be small, I still think that the natural resources afforded by Indonesia and whatever other possessions they might have would bolster Japan's economic growth, and considering Japan had a larger economy than China all the way until the 2000s (and that's even with Deng's reforms, which presumably would not happen in this universe) they would still have an industrial capacity to outproduce them in terms of war assets even if they can't match their army in terms of numbers. And that industrial capacity would be primarily geared towards military production, unlike in modern-day Japan.

@Mihndar

Having the raw materials doesn't mean they're a larger economy, since you still need to refine them into a usable industrial product. And then you need to transform the industrial product into an end product like a tank or a ship. Japan may have the capacity to do that. But it'll only be for their national armory and it'll probably all be in Japan since Indonesia would be too dangerous. And the stuff they produce may not even come back to them. With raw Indonesian produce they're really a sort of a bottom of the barrel western economy. Like the Balkans now, Central America, and much of Southern America (hell, even Indonesia itself. All that "rich land" and they're certainly 'murika 2.0) they wouldn't have the internal industrial capacity. The raw material they pull out is basically useless to them because they don't have the infrastructure. And if they build that they'd be entering into competition of manufacturing and higher-tier economies like the US, Europe, or even China itself. The US and Europe could probably bankrupt Japanese efforts too since they're so established. And with as minimal an industrial base at home as Japan has I doubt they'd be able to develop Indonesia. But that's even if they can put into the budget the subsidies while balancing police efforts in their colonies and handling political radicalism from both sides of the fence.

[null123]

You know, it's starting to seem a bit like China grew really powerful out of nowhere.

[Dinh AaronMk]

You know, it's starting to seem a bit like China grew really powerful out of nowhere.

@duck55223

Sort of like what happened IRL. The sprawling Chinese Empire has needed since its earliest days a means to support it's immensity. They have five-thousand years of history worth of fielding armies that could swallow Europe, and as such a economic and structural demand to match that with super-projects to match: massive irrigation networks and canals, semi-industrialized metal working since well before Europe could do it (they invented the blast furnace after all). And its key features since day 1: an incredibly effective, intense, and ancient system of meritocratic governance. Because Confucius said "Fuck you, get diploma noob scrublord."

[Vilageidiotx]

<Snipped quote by Vilageidiotx> But they also wouldn't have been devastated during World War 2, so to some degree those would have canceled out. And it seems a bit dubious to me that China could have industrialized several times faster in order to match.

@Mihndar

Eh, that's not as important as you would imagine. The countries that America tossed money at after WW2 caught up wildly quick.

You know, it's starting to seem a bit like China grew really powerful out of nowhere.

@duck55223

Sporum Precipice was a mess, and its left us a bunch of really peculiar shit. It does seem a bit unfair, but there aren't really any other legit options, since retconning the major powers would collapse Precipice's storylines and allowing people to make the same mistakes now would just make the cannon even more peculiar. But, in China's defense, they have a better situation for industrialization. Their culture was always what got in the way, but their population and their ability to get at resources cheaply gives them a leg up. Japan has to ship most of their resources overseas and has severely limited real-estate, so industrialization ends up more expensive for them.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Western intervention from Europe AND Japan in their major ports (Shanghai, Hong Kong, to a degree Macau) would have also left a modern leg up in the form of factories that were rebuilt. So the native infrastructure for mass production is present to be used and proliferated across the nation in the great balancing act that's been economic policy since 1960.

[Wilted Rose]

Well, in the end, it is all up to how Shiro handles the Koreans and Indonesians under Japan's control. I mean, Japan historically went for the full out 'Exploitation' mindset the Europeans did to Africa. But this is up to Shiro on what route Japan is going down now that Hirohito is really showing his age.

[Dinh AaronMk]

I don't imagine there'd by a seismic shift in psychology. We would be dealing with a Japan not glassed into oblivion and forced to concede as happened at the end of WW2. We'd be dealing with a Japan that was more bitterly defeated, but not forced to kneel and assume humility, nor has it faced levels of destruction absolute. And it'd have populist movements from either of the colonies, the Northern half of Korea would probably be looking at subversive ways to get the south to throw off Japanese tyranny and come back to them and the urban Indonesians at least may be attracted to anything that makes concepts of nationalism more attractive (I wouldn't know about any tribal groups like in Papau; though I remember Googer took an adventure out there in PoW and it was pretty much under developed).

[Wilted Rose]

Of course, I'd imagine Japan's route wouldn't take a 180 from their historical route. Still, Japan would probably attempt to Japenseise(Is this even a word) it's colonies. I'm sure Japan's government would understand that being at least somewhat benevolent to it's colonies helps in the end. Or they could do what the Italians did to Libya. Build tons of schools and roads, and send tons of Italians to live there in an attempt to fully integrate it and care no shits about the natives. Though... there are a shit ton more natives in Korea then in Libya.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Of course, I'd imagine Japan's route wouldn't take a 180 from their historical route. Still, Japan would probably attempt to Japenseise(Is this even a word) it's colonies. I'm sure Japan's government would understand that being at least somewhat benevolent to it's colonies helps in the end. Or they could do what the Italians did to Libya. Build tons of schools and roads, and send tons of Italians to live there in an attempt to fully integrate it and care no shits about the natives. Though... there are a shit ton more natives in Korea then in Libya.

@Wilted Rose

Either option would still piss off the natives. They attempted the same in Manchuria when they controlled it and started a lot of fights and brought about a lot of anger. They pushed Shintoism over Confucianism and Buddhism and basically alienated a lot of people. They even had a lot of drawn-out backroom battles with Emperor Puyi who wanted to maintain his Chinese image while his handlers wanted to force a Japanese image.

[Wilted Rose]

Hmm, fair enough then. I was not sure if Japan have ever actually attempted that, learn something new every day.

[Dinh AaronMk]

They also literally financed their investments in Manchuria through the poppy trade of Opium (and maybe heroin). The League of Nations investigated and concluded in... "In 1937, it was pointed out in the League of Nations that 90% of all illicit white drugs in the world were of Japanese origin..." I'd get the article they refer to but it seems to be dead.

[Dinh AaronMk]

So I'm going to need details, Googer or any Iberian League members.