Yeah, the Scholarship was pessimistic for Equestria's chances should all of their society fall. Such scenarios included Twilight just letting Spike scorch earth everything, AJ going all out against Stormwind, and a massive Whitegold civil war when Rarity finally lost her sanity. And that's not including the chaos the Cult would take advantage of, or Everfree doing what it can to expand itself. 20+ years of war had also polarized too many of the factions to even contemplate making peace.
Of course, their predictions are based on the data they have, which may or may not be very accurate. Or simply colored by their viewpoints.
