A big black balloon floats over the lake, tugging at its moorings.
They then throw the herbs into the ocean nearby.
So, yeah. 5 would take out Bauble. Is this strike to kill or just knock them unconscious.
Then in that case...5 would not be enough. Bauble would still be standing after that, but just barely.
If you are, the attack would be at disadvantage because they took the Dodge Action.
Although come to think of it, we're probably lucky he didn't think he'd turned into some sort of flying werebeast. Or aquatic werebeast. Imagine him trying to fly or breath under water, not realising he hasn't actually gained wings or gills.